8 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Rennes vs Lille Ligue 1 prediction & result

Roazhon Park, Rennes
Referee: Clement Turpin
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Rennes 1-2 Lille.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Rennes, 26% draw, 43% Lille — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lille at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rennes0%Draw4%Lille96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
⚽Soriba Diaoune
⚽Boulaye Diaassist: Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal
31'
55'
Calvin Verdonk
62'
🔁Calvin Verdonkout: Romain Perraud
62'
🔁Nabil Bentalebout: Maurits Kjaergaard
🔁Eliezer Mayendaout: Mousa Al-Tamari
63'
68'
⚽Nathan Ngoyassist: Soriba Diaoune
73'
Maurits Kjaergaard
73'
🔁Ethan Mbappeout: Dilane Bakwa
🔁Boulaye Diaout: Issa Soumaré
74'
🔁Mahdi Camaraout: Djaoui Cissé
75'
🔁Adrien Thomassonout: Ludovic Blas
75'
77'
Nathan Ngoy
🔁Gonçalo Oliveiraout: Sebastian Szymański
82'
83'
🔁Ngal'ayel Mukauout: Isaac Cossier
83'
🔁Hákon Arnar Haraldssonout: Olivier Giroud

Match stats — Rennes vs Lille

56%Possession44%
15Shots8
2On target3
7Corners2
1.59xG0.44

Goals against chances

Rennes1 from 1.59 xGless than the chances were worth
Lille2 from 0.44 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rennes 3-5-2
  • 30B. SambaG
  • 48A. Ait BoudlalD
  • 4C. CresswellD
  • 5Gonçalo OliveiraD
  • 14B. ReynoldsM
  • 28A. ThomassonM
  • 21V. RongierM
  • 45M. CamaraM
  • 18M. NagidaM
  • 22B. DiaF
  • 12Eliezer MayendaF
Substitutes
  • 10L. BlasF
  • 6D. CisséM
  • 95P. FrankowskiM
  • 16N. LemaîtreG
  • 26Q. MerlinD
  • 24A. RouaultD
  • 90I. SoumaréF
  • 17S. SzymańskiM
  • 11Mousa TamariF
Coach: F. Haise
Lille 4-3-3
  • 1B. ÖzerG
  • 3N. NgoyD
  • 23T. NianzouD
  • 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
  • 24C. VerdonkD
  • 17N. MukauM
  • 6N. BentalebM
  • 21B. AndréM
  • 8E. MbappéF
  • 10H. HaraldssonF
  • 35S. DiaouneF
Substitutes
  • 7D. BakwaF
  • 26I. CossierD
  • 12O. GillG
  • 9O. GiroudF
  • 38M. GoffiD
  • 14M. KjærgaardM
  • 15R. PerraudD
  • 28G. PerrinF
  • 11O. SahraouiF
Coach: Davide Ancelotti

Form going into Rennes vs Lille

Rennes

Ligue 1

  • L2-5away to Nice30 October 2026
  • W3-0Strasbourg25 October 2026
  • L3-4away to Paris FC18 October 2026
  • W4-1Auxerre11 October 2026

Lille

Ligue 1

  • W1-0Lens30 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Monaco25 October 2026
  • D1-1Stade Brestois 2917 October 2026
  • W1-0Le Havre10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Rennes scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Rennes had three goals or more.
  • Rennes conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Lille went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Lille scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Lille had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Rennes105142121016
2Lille10631147+721

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rennes vs Lille

  • 15 March 2026Rennes 1–2 LilleLigue 1
  • 3 January 2026Lille 0–2 RennesLigue 1
  • 16 February 2025Rennes 0–2 LilleLigue 1
  • 24 November 2024Lille 1–0 RennesLigue 1
  • 10 March 2024Lille 2–2 RennesLigue 1
  • 16 September 2023Rennes 2–2 LilleLigue 1

The full Rennes vs Lille record →

Leading scorers: Rennes and Lille

Rennes

GoalsAssists

  • E. Lepaul70
  • B. Dia50
  • S. Szymański41

Lille

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lille won 2–1 at Rennes. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Lille at 43%. The goals: Soriba Diaoune 24' for Lille, Boulaye Dia 31' for Rennes, Nathan Ngoy 68' for Lille. On expected goals it finished 1.59–0.44.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rennes a 9.4% chance to finish in the top three: 12.2% after a win, 8.8% after a draw, 6.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.8%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.

For Lille the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 46.5% going in: 52.5% after a win, 43.6% after a draw, 39.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.5%, 6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rennes v Lille has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 33% / 27% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 31% / 26% / 43%: the biggest move is Lille's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Rennes win31%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Lille win43%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.