Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Widzew Łódź 3-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Widzew Łódź, 30% draw, 34% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Widzew Łódź at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. DrągowskiG
- 70J. GazibegovićD
- 14VisusD
- 3S. KapuadiD
- 17C. ChengD
- 10Fran ÁlvarezM
- 5G. PapanikolaouM
- 6J. ShehuM
- 28K. ŚwiderskiF
- 99S. BergierF
- 19D. MalesF
- 79S. BiukM
- 4M. ŻyroD
- 40Mario GarcíaD
- 30V. IlićG
- 20A. KlukowskiM
- 8E. KornvigM
- 91M. KrajewskiD
- 98Paulinho BóiaF
- 18L. SelahiM
- 31Nikolaos Nestoras BotisG
- 3K. AcostaD
- 13D. KeramitsisD
- 41A. SzalaiD
- 29L. WillenD
- 35M. WojciechowskiM
- 21D. ChurlinovM
- 16P. DziczekM
- 6J. BiegańskiM
- 18P. MukairuM
- 22Jordi SánchezF
- 4A. RiccioD
- 33Pascal EnguehardG
- 75A. OssowskiD
- 17J. NsameF
- 10F. ČuićF
- 9R. MolnárF
- 47N. LawaM
- 11K. GrosickiM
- 30J. CzaplinskiM
Form going into Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin
Widzew Łódź
Ekstraklasa
- L2-3away to GKS Katowice31 October 2026
- D1-1Gornik Zabrze23 October 2026
- D0-0Wisla Krakow16 October 2026
- L1-2away to Piast Gliwice11 October 2026
Pogon Szczecin
Ekstraklasa
- L1-3away to Raków Częstochowa2 November 2026
- W4-3Radomiak Radom24 October 2026
- W1-0away to GKS Katowice17 October 2026
- W2-0Korona Kielce11 October 2026
What these results say
- Widzew Łódź did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Widzew Łódź scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Widzew Łódź conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 14 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin
- 28 February 2026Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 2 December 2025Pogon Szczecin 0–1 Widzew ŁódźCup
- 22 August 2025Widzew Łódź 1–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 22 February 2025Widzew Łódź 0–4 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 17 August 2024Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 16 December 2023Widzew Łódź 1–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin
Widzew Łódź
GoalsAssists
- K. Świderski51
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Widzew Łódź beat Pogon Szczecin 3–0. The model had made a win for Widzew Łódź its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Karol Świderski 33' for Widzew Łódź, Steve Kapuadi 63' for Widzew Łódź, Przemyslaw Wiśniewski 80' for Widzew Łódź. On expected goals it finished 1.94–0.79.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Widzew Łódź a 22.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 17.2% after a win, 22.4% after a draw, 27.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.2%, 5.4 points lower than before the match.
For Pogon Szczecin the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 11.9% going in: 15.5% after a win, 10.3% after a draw, 8.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.1%, 3.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Widzew Łódź v Pogon Szczecin has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 32% / 32% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 36% / 30% / 34%: the biggest move is Widzew Łódź's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Widzew Łódź win36%▲ +4
- Draw30%▼ −2
- Pogon Szczecin win34%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.