Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Estac Troyes 2-6 Strasbourg.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Estac Troyes, 29% draw, 29% Strasbourg — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Estac Troyes at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg
Line-ups
- 33P. BeachG
- 2L. MaronnierD
- 6A. MonfrayD
- 4M. DiazD
- 3A. OuzenadjiD
- 8M. DiopM
- 10M. IfnaouiM
- 17A. MilleM
- 29D. KarimM
- 22H. PicardM
- 20R. RipartF
- 7K. DiawaraF
- 31Noah DonkorD
- 11I. GomisM
- 39Yacouba KonéF
- 9J. Le DouaronF
- 23T. NkadaF
- 26A. PhliponeauM
- 40H. KonatéG
- 41Enisio CarneiroD
- 1F. JörgensenG
- 16G. AntwiD
- 4J. MitchellD
- 6I. DoukouréD
- 36OsoD
- 23Diogo SousaM
- 21P. DiopM
- 80Gessime YassineM
- 10G. ReynaM
- 11S. NanasiF
- 30J. OrtegaF
- 7S. Amo-AmeyawF
- 45B. BrantlindM
- 31Abdoul Karim CoulibalyD
- 14Dário EssugoM
- 40C. HarderF
- 24L. HøgsbergD
- 26O. KellymanM
- 28Tyrese NoubissieM
- 12M. PiekutowskiG
Form going into Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg
Estac Troyes
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Lorient29 August 2026
- D0-0Paris FC22 August 2026
Strasbourg
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Lens29 August 2026
- L0-4away to Marseille21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg
- 21 May 2023Estac Troyes 1–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 2 January 2023Strasbourg 2–3 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 17 April 2022Estac Troyes 1–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 22 August 2021Strasbourg 1–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
Leading scorers: Estac Troyes and Strasbourg
Estac Troyes
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Strasbourg
GoalsAssists
- Gessime Yassine43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Strasbourg won 6–2 at Estac Troyes. The model had leaned towards a win for Estac Troyes at 42% and given a win for Strasbourg 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Antoine Mille 9' for Estac Troyes, Jacobo Ortega 40' for Strasbourg, Diogo Sousa 42' for Strasbourg, Giovanni Reyna 57' for Strasbourg, Samuel Amo-Ameyaw 85' for Strasbourg, Samuel Amo-Ameyaw 88' for Strasbourg, Conrad Harder 90+2' for Strasbourg, Jérémy Le Douaron 90+5' for Estac Troyes.