6 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg Ligue 1 prediction & result

Troyes
Full time2 – 6

Final score: Estac Troyes 2-6 Strasbourg.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Estac Troyes, 29% draw, 29% Strasbourg — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Estac Troyes at 42% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Estac Troyes0%Draw1%Strasbourg99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Antoine Milleassist: Anis Ouzenadji
9'
Junior Diaz
37'
40'
⚽Jacobo Ortegaassist: Gessime Yassine
42'
⚽Diogo Sousa
45+2'
Pape Demba Diop
🔁Merwan Ifnaouiout: Kandet Diawara
56'
🔁Hugo Picardout: Jérémy Le Douaron
56'
57'
⚽Giovanni Reynaassist: Jacobo Ortega
63'
🔁Giovanni Reynaout: Dario Essugo
63'
🔁Sebastian Nanasiout: Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
🔁Renaud Ripartout: Timothee Nkada
70'
70'
🔁Ismael Doukoureout: Abdoul Karim Coulibaly
71'
🔁Jacobo Ortegaout: Conrad Harder
79'
🔁Gessime Yassineout: Lucas Høgsberg
🔁Dermane Karimout: Yacouba Koné
84'
🔁Lucas Maronnierout: Iron Gomis
84'
85'
⚽Samuel Amo-Ameyawassist: Dario Essugo
88'
⚽Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
90+2'
⚽Conrad Harderassist: Diogo Sousa
⚽Jérémy Le Douaronassist: Kandet Diawara
90+5'

Match stats — Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg

45%Possession55%
27Shots19
6On target12
11Corners0

Line-ups

Estac Troyes 4-1-4-1
  • 33P. BeachG
  • 2L. MaronnierD
  • 6A. MonfrayD
  • 4M. DiazD
  • 3A. OuzenadjiD
  • 8M. DiopM
  • 10M. IfnaouiM
  • 17A. MilleM
  • 29D. KarimM
  • 22H. PicardM
  • 20R. RipartF
Substitutes
  • 7K. DiawaraF
  • 31Noah DonkorD
  • 11I. GomisM
  • 39Yacouba KonéF
  • 9J. Le DouaronF
  • 23T. NkadaF
  • 26A. PhliponeauM
  • 40H. KonatéG
  • 41Enisio CarneiroD
Coach: S. Dumont
Strasbourg 4-3-3
  • 1F. JörgensenG
  • 16G. AntwiD
  • 4J. MitchellD
  • 6I. DoukouréD
  • 36OsoD
  • 23Diogo SousaM
  • 21P. DiopM
  • 80Gessime YassineM
  • 10G. ReynaM
  • 11S. NanasiF
  • 30J. OrtegaF
Substitutes
  • 7S. Amo-AmeyawF
  • 45B. BrantlindM
  • 31Abdoul Karim CoulibalyD
  • 14Dário EssugoM
  • 40C. HarderF
  • 24L. HøgsbergD
  • 26O. KellymanM
  • 28Tyrese NoubissieM
  • 12M. PiekutowskiG
Coach: Hugo Oliveira

Form going into Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg

Estac Troyes

  • W2-1away to Lorient29 August 2026
  • D0-0Paris FC22 August 2026

Strasbourg

  • W2-1Lens29 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Marseille21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Estac Troyes411249-54
6Strasbourg421198+17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg

  • 6 September 2026Estac Troyes 2–6 StrasbourgLigue 1
  • 21 May 2023Estac Troyes 1–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
  • 2 January 2023Strasbourg 2–3 Estac TroyesLigue 1
  • 17 April 2022Estac Troyes 1–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
  • 22 August 2021Strasbourg 1–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1

Leading scorers: Estac Troyes and Strasbourg

Estac Troyes

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Strasbourg

  • Gessime Yassine2 goals1 assists
  • S. Amo-Ameyaw2 goals
  • J. Ortega1 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.