25 October 2026, 13:45 UTC

Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Chorten Arena, Bialystok
Referee: Damian Kos
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Jagiellonia 1-0 Wisla Plock.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Jagiellonia, 27% draw, 22% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Jagiellonia at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Jagiellonia97%Draw3%Wisla Plock0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
🔁Sidnei·Tavaresout: Fabian Hiszpański
58'
🔁Samuel Akereout: Olaf Kobacki
🔁Aleksandar·Cirkovicout: Kajetan·Szmyt
59'
🔁Jeremy Agbonifoout: Ousmane Sow
59'
🔁Jesús Imazout: Ferslev Anders Klynge
71'
•Dušan Stojinović
80'
82'
🔁Patryk Kunout: Said Hamulic
82'
🔁Jurica Prširout: Marcin Flis
82'
🔁Łukasz Sekulskiout: Deni Jurić
⚽Ousmane Sowassist: Kajetan·Szmyt
83'
🔁Nik Prelecout: Dimitris Rallis
89'
🔁Sergio Lozanoout: Eryk Kozlowski
89'

Match stats — Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock

53%Possession47%
21Shots7
4On target4
8Corners3
1.81xG1.01

Goals against chances

Jagiellonia1 from 1.81 xGless than the chances were worth
Wisla Plock0 from 1.01 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Jagiellonia 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. PerchelG
  • 27Rodrigo ConceiçãoD
  • 44A. KonstantopoulosD
  • 3D. StojinovićD
  • 23Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaD
  • 6T. RomanczukM
  • 21Sergio LozanoM
  • 10J. AgbonifoM
  • 11Jesús ImazM
  • 32A. ĆirkovićM
  • 99N. PrelecF
Substitutes
  • 50S. AbramowiczG
  • 20B. WdowikD
  • 72K. JóźwiakM
  • 19A. KlyngeM
  • 4Y. KobayashiD
  • 70J. KucharskiM
  • 2C. PolakD
  • 9Dimitris RallisF
  • 30O. SowM
Coach: A. Siemieniec
Wisla Plock 3-4-3
  • 12R. LeszczyńskiG
  • 4M. Haglind-SangréD
  • 35M. KamińskiD
  • 34Afonso SilvaD
  • 21Ž. RogeljM
  • 18J. PrširM
  • 5Sidnei TavaresM
  • 19D. GallapeniM
  • 57S. AkereF
  • 20Ł. SekulskiF
  • 23P. KunF
Substitutes
  • 88K. SavvidīsM
  • 6K. PomorskiM
  • 44P. MisiakD
  • 91G. KuchkoM
  • 7O. KobackiM
  • 9D. JurićF
  • 16F. HiszpańskiM
  • 10S. HamulićF
  • 3M. FlisD
Coach: A. Majewski

Form going into Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock

Jagiellonia

Ekstraklasa

  • L0-1away to Zaglebie Lubin18 October 2026
  • L1-3Gornik Zabrze10 October 2026

Wisla Plock

Ekstraklasa

  • W1-0Radomiak Radom19 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Wieczysta Kraków9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Jagiellonia137061818021
12Wisla Plock134361421-715

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock

  • 21 March 2026Jagiellonia 1–2 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
  • 19 September 2025Wisla Plock 0–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 21 April 2023Wisla Plock 2–4 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 14 January 2023Wisla Plock 3–1 JagielloniaFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 October 2022Jagiellonia 1–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
  • 13 March 2022Jagiellonia 0–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock

Jagiellonia

GoalsAssists

  • N. Prelec42

Wisla Plock

No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Jagiellonia beat Wisla Plock 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Jagiellonia at 51%. The goal: Ousmane Sow 83' for Jagiellonia. On expected goals it finished 1.81–1.01.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jagiellonia a 4.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.1% after a win, 5.4% after a draw, 7.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.1%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

For Wisla Plock the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 22.7% going in: 13.4% after a win, 22.6% after a draw, 25.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.7%, 3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.