24 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana
Referee: Tomasz Kwiatkowski, Poland
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Wisla Krakow 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Wisla Krakow, 25% draw, 26% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Wisla Krakow at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wisla Krakow5%Draw91%Raków Częstochowa4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Julius Ertlthaler
8'
45'
🔁Fran Tudorout: Karol Struski
45'
🔁Tomasz Pienkoout: Mahir Emreli
⚽Julius Ertlthalerassist: Julian Lelieveld
53'
63'
🔁Marko Bulatout: Vladyslav Kochergin
63'
🔁Jean Carlosout: Jakub Jendryka
🔁Julian Lelieveldout: Marko Bozic
66'
🔁Frederico Duarteout: Thody Elie Youan
66'
🔁James Igbekemeout: Víctor Meseguer
66'
72'
•Lamine Diaby Fadiga
81'
Jerzy Napieraj
82'
•Lamine Diaby Fadiga
84'
⚽Lamine Diaby Fadiga (pen)
84'
Lamine Diaby Fadiga
90+4'
🔁Erick Otienoout: Nils Zätterström
⚽Kacper Dudaassist: Alan Uryga
90+10'

Match stats — Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa

58%Possession42%
13Shots13
8On target2
1Corners4
1.09xG2.02

Goals against chances

Wisla Krakow2 from 1.09 xGmore than the chances were worth
Raków Częstochowa1 from 2.02 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Wisla Krakow 4-4-1-1
  • 1M. ŁubikG
  • 34R. GigerD
  • 6A. UrygaD
  • 29D. GrujčićD
  • 52J. KrzyżanowskiD
  • 10Frederico DuarteM
  • 41K. DudaM
  • 12J. IgbekemeM
  • 2J. LelieveldM
  • 7J. ErtlthalerM
  • 9Ángel RodadoF
Substitutes
  • 17M. BožićM
  • 97W. BiedrzyckiD
  • 8Marc CarbóM
  • 13M. MaisonneuveD
  • 23Víctor MeseguerM
  • 4R. MikulecD
  • 93B. NeugebauerG
  • 27É. YouanF
Coach: M. Jop
Raków Częstochowa 3-4-3
  • 1K. TrelowskiG
  • 7F. TudorD
  • 25B. RacovițanD
  • 4S. SvarnasD
  • 20Jean CarlosM
  • 6O. RepkaM
  • 5M. BulatM
  • 26E. OtienoM
  • 80L. Diaby-FadigaF
  • 9P. MakuchF
  • 21T. PieńkoF
Substitutes
  • 39I. BrusbergF
  • 17J. JendrykaM
  • 71T. KarićG
  • 10V. KocherginM
  • 15O. KwiatkowskiM
  • 2J. NapierajD
  • 23K. StruskiM
  • 3A. BrorssonD
  • 19N. ZätterströmD
Coach: Dawid Szwarga

Form going into Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa

Wisla Krakow

Ekstraklasa

  • D0-0away to Widzew Łódź16 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Legia Warszawa11 October 2026

Raków Częstochowa

Ekstraklasa

  • W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków16 October 2026
  • L1-4GKS Katowice9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Wisla Krakow147342219+324
16Raków Częstochowa1440102331-812

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa

  • 6 February 2022Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 8 August 2021Wisla Krakow 1–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 9 April 2021Wisla Krakow 1–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 8 November 2020Raków Częstochowa 0–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 20 June 2020Raków Częstochowa 3–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 10 June 2020Wisla Krakow 3–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa

Wisla Krakow

GoalsAssists

  • Ángel Rodado41

Raków Częstochowa

GoalsAssists

  • P. Makuch81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Wisla Krakow beat Raków Częstochowa 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Wisla Krakow at 49%. The goals: Julius Ertlthaler 53' for Wisla Krakow, Lamine Diaby Fadiga (penalty) 84' for Raków Częstochowa, Kacper Duda 90+10' for Wisla Krakow. On expected goals it finished 1.09–2.02.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wisla Krakow a 4.8% chance to finish in the top two: 6.0% after a win, 3.2% after a draw, 2.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.0%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

For Raków Częstochowa the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 36.7% going in: 27.4% after a win, 36.2% after a draw, 40.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.9%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Wisla Krakow v Raków Częstochowa has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 56% / 22% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is Wisla Krakow's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Wisla Krakow win49%▼ −7
  2. Draw25%▲ +3
  3. Raków Częstochowa win26%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.