25 October 2026, 16:15 UTC

Rennes vs Strasbourg Ligue 1 prediction & result

Roazhon Park, Rennes
Referee: Ruddy Buquet
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Rennes 3-0 Strasbourg.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Rennes, 22% draw, 30% Strasbourg — fair odds of 2.08, 4.55 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Rennes at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rennes99%Draw1%Strasbourg0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
Gessime Yassine
⚽Boulaye Diaassist: Przemysław Frankowski
34'
•Boulaye Dia
34'
⚽Sebastian Szymańskiassist: Mahamadou Nagida
41'
45'
🔁Dario Essugoout: Yaya Dieme
Boulaye Dia
56'
⚽Sebastian Szymańskiassist: Mousa Al-Tamari
61'
🔁Mousa Al-Tamariout: Adrien Thomasson
64'
🔁Boulaye Diaout: Eliezer Mayenda
64'
65'
Giovanni Reyna
70'
🔁Conrad Harderout: Jacobo Ortega
70'
🔁Diogo Sousaout: Samir El-Mourabet
70'
🔁Gessime Yassineout: Martial Godo
🔁Mahamadou Nagidaout: Quentin Merlin
71'
🔁Mahdi Camaraout: Djaoui Cissé
78'
🔁Sebastian Szymańskiout: Ludovic Blas
78'
84'
🔁Giovanni Reynaout: Omari Kellyman
87'
Pape Demba Diop

Match stats — Rennes vs Strasbourg

47%Possession53%
15Shots12
5On target4
2Corners5
1.67xG0.93

Goals against chances

Rennes3 from 1.67 xGmore than the chances were worth
Strasbourg0 from 0.93 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rennes 5-3-2
  • 30B. SambaG
  • 95P. FrankowskiD
  • 48A. Ait BoudlalD
  • 4C. CresswellD
  • 24A. RouaultD
  • 18M. NagidaD
  • 17S. SzymańskiM
  • 21V. RongierM
  • 45M. CamaraM
  • 22B. DiaF
  • 11Mousa TamariF
Substitutes
  • 60Kilian BelazzougG
  • 26Q. MerlinD
  • 5Gonçalo OliveiraD
  • 14B. ReynoldsD
  • 28A. ThomassonM
  • 10L. BlasF
  • 6D. CisséM
  • 90I. SoumaréF
  • 12Eliezer MayendaF
Coach: F. Haise
Strasbourg 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. JörgensenG
  • 16G. AntwiD
  • 4J. MitchellD
  • 31Abdoul Karim CoulibalyD
  • 36OsoD
  • 21P. DiopM
  • 14Dário EssugoM
  • 80Gessime YassineM
  • 23Diogo SousaM
  • 10G. ReynaM
  • 40C. HarderF
Substitutes
  • 12M. PiekutowskiG
  • 43Y. BeckerD
  • 24L. HøgsbergD
  • 29S. El MourabetM
  • 28Tyrese NoubissieM
  • 20M. GodoF
  • 26O. KellymanM
  • 30J. OrtegaF
  • 35Yaya DiemeF
Coach: Hugo Oliveira

Form going into Rennes vs Strasbourg

Rennes

Ligue 1

  • L3-4away to Paris FC18 October 2026
  • W4-1Auxerre11 October 2026

Strasbourg

Ligue 1

  • L1-3Paris Saint Germain17 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Nice11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Rennes105142121016
13Strasbourg103161822-410

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rennes vs Strasbourg

Rennes and Strasbourg have met 7 times in the records we hold, Rennes has won 4 of them to Strasbourg's 2, with 1 drawn.

The record

Rennes won the last one 3–0 on 25 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Rennes412137
Strasbourg214713

Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 25 Oct 2026
    Ligue 1    Rennes 3–0 Strasbourg
  • 19 Apr 2026
    Ligue 1    Strasbourg 0–3 Rennes
  • 2 Nov 2025
    Ligue 1    Rennes 4–1 Strasbourg
  • 2 Feb 2025
    Ligue 1    Rennes 1–0 Strasbourg
  • 25 Aug 2024
    Ligue 1    Strasbourg 3–1 Rennes
  • 31 Mar 2024
    Ligue 1    Strasbourg 2–0 Rennes
  • 29 Oct 2023
    Ligue 1    Rennes 1–1 Strasbourg

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Rennes' attack rates 9% above Strasbourg's, and Strasbourg concede 3% fewer than Rennes. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Rennes1.231.29
Strasbourg1.131.25

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Rennes and Strasbourg

Rennes

GoalsAssists

  • E. Lepaul70
  • B. Dia50
  • S. Szymański41

Strasbourg

GoalsAssists

  • Gessime Yassine43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rennes beat Strasbourg 3–0. The model had made a win for Rennes its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Boulaye Dia 34' for Rennes, Sebastian Szymański 41' for Rennes, Sebastian Szymański 61' for Rennes. On expected goals it finished 1.67–0.93.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rennes a 13.6% chance to finish in the top three: 15.9% after a win, 11.4% after a draw, 9.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.9%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rennes v Strasbourg has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 44% / 23% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 48% / 22% / 30%: the biggest move is Rennes's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Rennes win48%▲ +4
  2. Draw22%▼ −1
  3. Strasbourg win30%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.