25 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Warsaw
Referee: Szymon Marciniak
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Legia Warszawa 1-2 Lech Poznan.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Legia Warszawa, 27% draw, 36% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Legia Warszawa at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Legia Warszawa0%Draw4%Lech Poznan96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
🔁Mikael Ishakout: Y. Agnero
Paweł Wszołek
15'
🔁Rafal Adamskiout: Mateusz Szczepaniak
29'
🔁Paweł Wszołekout: Rúben Vinagre
45'
56'
⚽Y. Agneroassist: Leo Bengtsson
60'
Terry Yegbe
66'
Leo Bengtsson
67'
🔁Leo Bengtssonout: Daniel Håkans
🔁Michal Sevcikout: Bogdan V'Yunnik
67'
🔁Kacper Chodynaout: Shinnosuke Fukuda
67'
67'
🔁Patrick Walemarkout: Luis Palma
67'
🔁Pablo Rodriguez Delgadoout: Filip Jagiełło
Bartosz Kapustka
71'
⚽Bogdan V'Yunnikassist: Rafał Augustyniak
74'
81'
🔁antoni kozubalout: Gustav Berggren
🔁Wojciech Urbanskiout: Damian Szymański
85'
87'
⚽Luis Palmaassist: Daniel Håkans

Match stats — Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan

56%Possession44%
17Shots11
9On target5
9Corners5
1.54xG1.3

Goals against chances

Legia Warszawa1 from 1.54 xGless than the chances were worth
Lech Poznan2 from 1.30 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Legia Warszawa 3-4-3
  • 89O. HindrichG
  • 91K. PiątkowskiD
  • 8R. AugustyniakD
  • 5Robert DezielD
  • 22P. WszołekM
  • 53W. UrbańskiM
  • 67B. KapustkaM
  • 11K. ChodynaM
  • 23M. ŠevčíkF
  • 79Ł. ZjawińskiF
  • 9R. AdamskiF
Substitutes
  • 1I. BrkićG
  • 4D. SzymańskiM
  • 14A. ČolakF
  • 19Rúben VinagreD
  • 17M. SzczepaniakM
  • 27Bogdan V'YunnikF
  • 13A. RecaD
  • 7J. KuchtaF
  • 2S. FukudaD
Coach: M. Papszun
Lech Poznan 4-4-2
  • 1M. LisG
  • 2Joel PereiraD
  • 72M. SkrzypczakD
  • 59T. YegbeD
  • 15M. GurgulD
  • 10P. WålemarkM
  • 22R. MurawskiM
  • 43A. KozubalM
  • 14L. BengtssonM
  • 9M. IshakF
  • 21Pablo RodríguezF
Substitutes
  • 56W. SzymczakF
  • 33M. PruchniewskiG
  • 77L. PalmaM
  • 31Wiktor ObremskiG
  • 24F. JagiełłoM
  • 11D. HåkansM
  • 5G. BerggrenM
  • 55Piotr BartczakD
  • 7Y. AgneroF
Coach: N. Frederiksen

Form going into Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan

Legia Warszawa

Ekstraklasa

  • D1-1away to Cracovia Krakow17 October 2026
  • W2-0Wisla Krakow11 October 2026

Lech Poznan

Ekstraklasa

  • W6-1Korona Kielce18 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Slask Wroclaw10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Legia Warszawa146622515+1024
1Lech Poznan1310213413+2132

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan

  • 26 April 2026Lech Poznan 4–0 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 26 October 2025Legia Warszawa 0–0 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 13 July 2025Lech Poznan 1–2 Legia WarszawaSuper Cup
  • 11 May 2025Legia Warszawa 0–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 10 November 2024Lech Poznan 5–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 12 May 2024Lech Poznan 1–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan

Legia Warszawa

No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.

Lech Poznan

GoalsAssists

  • P. Wålemark73
  • Pablo Rodríguez67
  • A. Sayyadmanesh50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lech Poznan won 2–1 at Legia Warszawa. The model had leaned towards a win for Legia Warszawa at 37% and given a win for Lech Poznan 36%. The goals: Y. Agnero 56' for Lech Poznan, Bogdan V'Yunnik 74' for Legia Warszawa, Luis Palma 87' for Lech Poznan. On expected goals it finished 1.54–1.30.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Legia Warszawa a 35.6% chance to finish in the top two: 42.5% after a win, 33.4% after a draw, 29.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.4%, 6.2 points lower than before the match.

For Lech Poznan the question was the chance to win the league, 66.0% going in: 74.4% after a win, 66.1% after a draw, 59.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 74.4%, 8.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.