Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Pogon Szczecin 4-3 Radomiak Radom.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Pogon Szczecin, 23% draw, 15% Radomiak Radom — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Pogon Szczecin at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77V. CojocaruG
- 4A. RiccioD
- 13D. KeramitsisD
- 41A. SzalaiD
- 23B. MendyD
- 16P. DziczekM
- 6J. BiegańskiM
- 21D. ChurlinovM
- 35M. WojciechowskiM
- 18P. MukairuM
- 22Jordi SánchezF
- 3K. AcostaM
- 10F. ČuićF
- 30J. CzaplinskiM
- 98M. DabrowskiG
- 11K. GrosickiM
- 47N. LawaM
- 17J. NsameF
- 29L. WillenD
- 9R. MolnárF
- 1F. MajchrowiczG
- 24Z. OuattaraD
- 14S. KingueD
- 72F. KoperskiD
- 97ConradoD
- 10R. AlvesM
- 77C. DonisM
- 13J. GrzesikM
- 27R. WolskiM
- 90Ronaldo AfonsoM
- 80Guilherme LuizF
- 99B. GradeckiG
- 23K. KarasekM
- 82LuquinhasM
- 18ManuF
- 7C. NunnelyF
- 3K. SzcześniakD
- 15A. TapsobaF
- 11F. GouréF
- 26Adrián DiéguezD
Form going into Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom
Pogon Szczecin
Ekstraklasa
- W1-0away to GKS Katowice17 October 2026
- W2-0Korona Kielce11 October 2026
Radomiak Radom
Ekstraklasa
- L0-1away to Wisla Plock19 October 2026
- L2-3Motor Lublin12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom
- 6 December 2025Pogon Szczecin 2–2 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 20 July 2025Radomiak Radom 5–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 10 May 2025Radomiak Radom 2–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 8 November 2024Pogon Szczecin 0–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 16 February 2024Radomiak Radom 0–4 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 13 August 2023Pogon Szczecin 0–2 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez91
Radomiak Radom
GoalsAssists
- J. Grzesik53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pogon Szczecin beat Radomiak Radom 4–3. The model had made a win for Pogon Szczecin its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Roberto Oliveira Alves (penalty) 10' for Radomiak Radom, Dimitrios Keramitsis 17' for Pogon Szczecin, Christos Donis 25' for Radomiak Radom, Alessandro Riccio 45+3' for Pogon Szczecin, Kamil Grosicki 49' for Pogon Szczecin, Kamil Grosicki 55' for Pogon Szczecin, Jan Grzesik 74' for Radomiak Radom. Sent off: Ibrahima Camará (Radomiak Radom) 89'. On expected goals it finished 1.06–1.95.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pogon Szczecin a 19.5% chance to finish in the top two: 21.4% after a win, 15.6% after a draw, 13.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.4%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
For Radomiak Radom the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 71.5% going in: 62.2% after a win, 71.4% after a draw, 73.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 73.3%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Pogon Szczecin v Radomiak Radom has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 59% / 24% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 62% / 23% / 15%: the biggest move is Pogon Szczecin's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Pogon Szczecin win62%▲ +3
- Draw23%▼ −1
- Radomiak Radom win15%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.