Regular Season - 17 · 27 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Jong Ajax vs Heracles Eerste Divisie prediction

Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Ouder-Amstel

Our model says: Jong Ajax 1–2 Heracles

The model makes it 21% Jong Ajax, 23% draw, 56% Heracles — fair odds of 4.76, 4.35 and 1.79.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).

Expected goals: Jong Ajax 1.13, Heracles 2.17.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Heracles are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Jong Ajax's rating is built from 52 Eerste Divisie matches and Heracles's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Jong Ajax are 15th on 16 points from 14 games; Heracles are top on 38 points from 15 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • Jong Ajax are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to FC Eindhoven.
  • Heracles are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Dordrecht.
  • Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 May 2023, ended Heracles 2–0 Jong Ajax.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Jong Ajax vs Heracles

60%
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Jong Ajax win Draw Heracles win
  1. 1–210%
  2. 1–19%
  3. 0–29%
  4. 0–18%
  5. 1–37%
  6. 0–36%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Jong Ajax first; the other scorelines share the remaining 46%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Heracles at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Jong Ajax vs Heracles

Jong Ajax

Eerste Divisie

  • W3-0away to FC Eindhoven6 November 2026
  • D1-1Vitesse2 November 2026
  • D3-3away to FC OSS23 October 2026
  • W2-1De Graafschap19 October 2026
  • L0-3VVV Venlo9 October 2026

Heracles

Eerste Divisie

  • W2-1away to Dordrecht14 November 2026
  • W5-1Roda6 November 2026
  • W2-0FC OSS2 November 2026
  • D1-1away to NAC Breda23 October 2026
  • W5-1away to MVV18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Jong Ajax scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jong Ajax conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Jong Ajax had three goals or more.
  • Heracles went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Heracles scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Heracles won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Jong Ajax144462230-816
1Heracles1512214616+3038

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Jong Ajax

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today

Win 13%
Draw 17%
Defeat 20%

Heracles

Chance to finish top of the Eerste Divisie: Regular season · 92% today

Win 93%
Draw 90%
Defeat 89%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Jong Ajax vs Heracles

  • 19 May 2023Heracles 2–0 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
  • 5 September 2022Jong Ajax 4–0 HeraclesEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Jong Ajax and Heracles

Jong Ajax

GoalsAssists

  • E. Ünüvar80
  • D. Pugno62

Heracles

GoalsAssists

  • J. N'djoli143
  • T. van Gilst112

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jong Ajax a 0% chance of the title and Heracles 91.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Jong Ajax v Heracles has moved

First published on 13 Nov at 20% / 22% / 58% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 21% / 23% / 56%: the biggest move is Heracles's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Jong Ajax win21%▲ +1
  2. Draw23%▲ +1
  3. Heracles win56%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Jong Ajax Heracles
0.57 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.92
1.96 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.22
1.13 Model expected goals (this match) 2.17

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Heracles the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Jong Ajax against 2.17 for Heracles. Jong Ajax's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.22 for Heracles.

Jong Ajax carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.71 for Heracles.

How the model reaches 56% for Heracles to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Heracles to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Jong Ajax's ratings add 13 points and Heracles's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 56%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Jong Ajax's ratings42%+13
  4. Heracles's ratings56%+14

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Jong AjaxHeracles
14Matches15
4W 4D 6LRecord12W 2D 1L
22 1.6 per gameGoals scored46 3.1 per game
30 2.1 per gameGoals conceded16 1.1 per game
3 of 14Clean sheets4 of 15
3 of 14Failed to score1 of 15
1 of 1Penalties scored6 of 6
34 2.4 per gameYellow cards22 1.5 per game
3Red cards1
4-3-3 8×Usual shape4-2-3-1 13×

Jong Ajax at home · Heracles away

7Played8
2W 2D 3LRecord5W 2D 1L
10–15Goals for – against23–11
1 of 7Clean sheets0 of 8

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Jong Ajax 14, Heracles 15.

Jong Ajax scored 733234
Heracles conceded 413316

Jong Ajax score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Heracles have let in 4 there.

Heracles scored 72126114
Jong Ajax conceded 524575

Heracles score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Jong Ajax have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Jong Ajax

  • at Den Bosch4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 28%
  • vs MVV11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 51%
  • at Waalwijk18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 21%

Heracles

  • vs Emmen4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 74%
  • vs FC Volendam11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 67%
  • at De Graafschap18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 53%
  • vs NAC Breda10 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 62%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.