Regular Season - 17 · 27 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC Eerste Divisie prediction

Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Utrecht

Our model says: Jong Utrecht 1–2 Almere City FC

The model makes it 27% Jong Utrecht, 25% draw, 48% Almere City FC — fair odds of 3.70, 4.00 and 2.08.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Jong Utrecht 1.27, Almere City FC 1.85.

Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

One-sided: Almere City FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Jong Utrecht's rating is built from 52 Eerste Divisie matches and Almere City FC's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Jong Utrecht are bottom on 11 points from 14 games; Almere City FC are 2nd on 31 points from 15 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • Jong Utrecht have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Den Bosch.
  • Almere City FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 6-1 win at home to Helmond Sport.
  • Last 6 meetings: Almere City FC 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended Jong Utrecht 2–3 Almere City FC.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC

61%
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Jong Utrecht win Draw Almere City FC win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–210%
  3. 0–18%
  4. 0–28%
  5. 2–17%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 1–36%

Scores read Jong Utrecht first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Almere City FC at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC

Jong Utrecht

Eerste Divisie

  • D1-1away to Den Bosch7 November 2026
  • W3-2Dordrecht2 November 2026
  • L2-6away to FC Volendam23 October 2026
  • L1-2Roda19 October 2026
  • L1-2away to De Graafschap9 October 2026

Almere City FC

Eerste Divisie

  • W6-1Helmond Sport14 November 2026
  • W3-1away to Jong AZ6 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Waalwijk30 October 2026
  • L2-3Roda23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Emmen17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Jong Utrecht scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Jong Utrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Jong Utrecht.
  • Almere City FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Almere City FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Almere City FC had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Jong Utrecht143292334-1111
2Almere City FC1510143615+2131

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Jong Utrecht

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 49% today

Win 41%
Draw 48%
Defeat 53%

Almere City FC

Chance to finish top of the Eerste Divisie: Regular season · 5% today

Win 7%
Draw 4%
Defeat 3%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC

  • 27 February 2026Jong Utrecht 2–3 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • 26 September 2025Almere City FC 4–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 2 August 2025Almere City FC 3–1 Jong UtrechtFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 April 2023Almere City FC 1–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 7 October 2022Jong Utrecht 0–2 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • 7 March 2022Jong Utrecht 1–2 Almere City FCEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC

Jong Utrecht

GoalsAssists

  • E. C. Owen60

Almere City FC

GoalsAssists

  • F. Druijf103
  • M. Dors54

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jong Utrecht a 0% chance of the title and Almere City FC 5.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Jong Utrecht v Almere City FC has moved

First published on 13 Nov at 29% / 26% / 45% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 27% / 25% / 48%: the biggest move is Almere City FC's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Jong Utrecht win27%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Almere City FC win48%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Jong Utrecht Almere City FC
0.56 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.74
2.07 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.39
1.27 Model expected goals (this match) 1.85

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Almere City FC the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Jong Utrecht against 1.85 for Almere City FC. Jong Utrecht's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.39 for Almere City FC.

Jong Utrecht carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.53 for Almere City FC.

How the model reaches 48% for Almere City FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Almere City FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Jong Utrecht's ratings add 9 points and Almere City FC's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 48%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Jong Utrecht's ratings38%+9
  4. Almere City FC's ratings48%+10

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Jong UtrechtAlmere City FC
14Matches15
3W 2D 9LRecord10W 1D 4L
23 1.6 per gameGoals scored36 2.4 per game
34 2.4 per gameGoals conceded15 1.0 per game
1 of 14Clean sheets5 of 15
1 of 14Failed to score1 of 15
–Penalties scored2 of 4
17 1.2 per gameYellow cards18 1.2 per game
2Red cards0
4-2-3-1 5×Usual shape4-2-3-1 10×

Jong Utrecht at home · Almere City FC away

7Played8
2W 1D 4LRecord5W 1D 2L
13–17Goals for – against20–9
1 of 7Clean sheets2 of 8

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Jong Utrecht 14, Almere City FC 15.

Jong Utrecht scored 554432
Almere City FC conceded 220453
Almere City FC scored 4533712
Jong Utrecht conceded 548745

Almere City FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Jong Utrecht have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Jong Utrecht

  • at Helmond Sport4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
  • vs Waalwijk11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 33%
  • at VVV Venlo19 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 20%

Almere City FC

  • at FC OSS4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 41%
  • vs VVV Venlo11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 53%
  • vs Vitesse18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 53%
  • at Jong PSV U2111 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 43%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.