Regular Season - 17 · 27 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Jong AZ vs FC OSS Eerste Divisie prediction

AFAS Trainingscomplex, Wijdewormer

Our model says: Jong AZ 2–1 FC OSS

The model makes it 45% Jong AZ, 26% draw, 29% FC OSS — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Jong AZ 1.81, FC OSS 1.35.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Jong AZ's rating is built from 52 Eerste Divisie matches and FC OSS's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Jong AZ are 12th on 17 points from 14 games; FC OSS are 14th on 17 points from 15 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • Jong AZ have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Almere City FC.
  • FC OSS have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to De Graafschap.
  • Last 6 meetings: FC OSS 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended FC OSS 0–3 Jong AZ.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Jong AZ vs FC OSS

62%
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Jong AZ win Draw FC OSS win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–07%
  4. 1–27%
  5. 2–07%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Jong AZ first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Jong AZ at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Jong AZ vs FC OSS

Jong AZ

Eerste Divisie

  • L1-3Almere City FC6 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Roda30 October 2026
  • W5-4Helmond Sport23 October 2026
  • D4-4away to VVV Venlo16 October 2026
  • L0-1Den Bosch9 October 2026

FC OSS

Eerste Divisie

  • W2-1away to De Graafschap14 November 2026
  • D1-1Waalwijk6 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Heracles2 November 2026
  • D3-3Jong Ajax23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Den Bosch16 October 2026

What these results say

  • Jong AZ conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Jong AZ failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jong AZ scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC OSS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC OSS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC OSS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Jong AZ145273331+217
14FC OSS155282224-217

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Jong AZ

Chance to finish in the top eight · 27% today

Win 31%
Draw 24%
Defeat 21%

FC OSS

Chance to finish in the top eight · 20% today

Win 28%
Draw 19%
Defeat 16%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Jong AZ vs FC OSS

  • 13 February 2026FC OSS 0–3 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 24 November 2025Jong AZ 0–1 FC OSSEerste Divisie
  • 2 August 2025FC OSS 2–1 Jong AZFriendlies Clubs
  • 31 March 2025Jong AZ 1–1 FC OSSEerste Divisie
  • 25 October 2024FC OSS 2–1 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 26 April 2024FC OSS 1–1 Jong AZEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Jong AZ and FC OSS

Jong AZ

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

FC OSS

GoalsAssists

  • M. Hinoke60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

How the call on Jong AZ v FC OSS has moved

First published on 13 Nov at 47% / 25% / 28% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 45% / 26% / 29%: the biggest move is Jong AZ's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Jong AZ win45%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. FC OSS win29%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Jong AZ FC OSS
0.68 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.52
2.15 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.64
1.81 Model expected goals (this match) 1.35

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Jong AZ the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Jong AZ against 1.35 for FC OSS. Jong AZ's attack/defence rating is 0.68/2.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.64 for FC OSS.

How the model reaches 45% for Jong AZ to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Jong AZ to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Jong AZ's ratings add 1 point and FC OSS's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 45%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+2
  4. Jong AZ's ratings47%+1
  5. FC OSS's ratings45%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Jong AZFC OSS
14Matches15
5W 2D 7LRecord5W 2D 8L
33 2.4 per gameGoals scored22 1.5 per game
31 2.2 per gameGoals conceded24 1.6 per game
0 of 14Clean sheets1 of 15
2 of 14Failed to score4 of 15
2 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1
17 1.2 per gameYellow cards26 1.7 per game
1Red cards1
4-2-3-1 8×Usual shape4-3-3 13×

Jong AZ at home · FC OSS away

7Played8
3W 0D 4LRecord1W 0D 7L
13–13Goals for – against5–15
0 of 7Clean sheets0 of 8

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Jong AZ 14, FC OSS 15.

Jong AZ scored 382468
FC OSS conceded 235324
FC OSS scored 363355
Jong AZ conceded 229575

FC OSS score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Jong AZ have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Jong AZ

  • at Waalwijk4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
  • vs NAC Breda11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 38%
  • at Helmond Sport18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 37%

FC OSS

  • vs Almere City FC4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 31%
  • vs FC Eindhoven11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 47%
  • at MVV18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 36%
  • vs Vitesse10 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 38%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.