18 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Kapaz vs Zira Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Ganja City Stadium, Tovuz
Referee: E. Aliyev
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Kapaz 1-1 Zira.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Kapaz, 30% draw, 38% Zira — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zira at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kapaz3%Draw93%Zira4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

S. Seyidov
40'
D. Domgjoni
44'
⚽Benito
57'
59'
🔁M. Mchakhchekhout: A. Seydiyev
59'
🔁E. Aydinout: G. Papunashvili
59'
🔁H. Hacylyout: E. Alicanov
🔁Benitoout: R. Haciyev
74'
🔁D. Acquahout: V. Abdullayev
81'
🔁V. Stinaout: R. Maharramli
81'
81'
🔁I. Ibrahimliout: I. Djibrilla
82'
E. Alicanov
🔁K. Kalungaout: U. Samadov
87'
89'
⚽D. Volkoviassist: Q. Aliyev

Line-ups

Kapaz
Coach: Azar Mammadov
Zira
Coach: Rashad Sadiqov

Form going into Kapaz vs Zira

Kapaz

Premyer Liqa

  • W2-0away to Araz9 October 2026

Zira

Premyer Liqa

  • D1-1Şamaxı FK10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Kapaz105231010017
5Zira115421615+119

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kapaz vs Zira

  • 9 March 2026Zira 2–2 KapazPremyer Liqa
  • 28 November 2025Kapaz 0–2 ZiraPremyer Liqa
  • 30 August 2025Zira 5–0 KapazPremyer Liqa
  • 26 April 2025Kapaz 0–1 ZiraPremyer Liqa
  • 24 February 2025Zira 2–0 KapazPremyer Liqa
  • 8 December 2024Kapaz 0–4 ZiraPremyer Liqa

The result against the call

Kapaz and Zira drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Zira at 38% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Benito 57' for Kapaz, D. Volkovi 89' for Zira.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kapaz a 21.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 15.4% after a win, 21.7% after a draw, 24.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 21.7%.

For Zira the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 33.7% going in: 39.3% after a win, 32.3% after a draw, 26.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 32.3%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Kapaz v Zira has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 30% / 30% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 32% / 30% / 38%: the biggest move is Kapaz's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Kapaz win32%▲ +2
  2. Draw30%=
  3. Zira win38%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.