OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: OFI 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Before kick-off the model made it 17% OFI, 20% draw, 63% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 5.88, 5.00 and 1.59.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Bayer Leverkusen at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. LiloG
- 5K. KostoulasD
- 15A. PoungourasD
- 2K. KrizmanićD
- 24L. DickmannM
- 14T. AndroutsosM
- 41A. BouchalakisM
- 3N. AthanasiouM
- 10Aitor CantalapiedraF
- 19K. KodroF
- 18T. NussF
- 21G. ApostolakisM
- 11T. FountasF
- 17Borja GonzálezD
- 90Pavlos KenourgiakisD
- 23Manuel KalafatisG
- 8G. KanellópoulosM
- 6Z. KarachaliosM
- 13P. KatsikasG
- 43D. NikolaouD
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 4J. QuansahD
- 5L. BadéD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 6E. FernándezM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 7J. HofmannM
- 10M. TillmanM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 14P. SchickF
- 23N. TellaF
- 19M. DiabyF
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 43B. HawighorstD
- 36N. LombG
- 30I. MazaM
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 45Gabriel MinutilloM
Form going into OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen
OFI
UEFA Europa League
- L1-2away to Rennes15 October 2026
- W2-01899 Hoffenheim17 September 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Europa League
- W4-0away to Lech Poznan15 October 2026
- W2-0Celje16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | OFI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Bayer Leverkusen won 2–0 at OFI. The model had made a win for Bayer Leverkusen its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jonas Hofmann 35' for Bayer Leverkusen, Jonas Hofmann 37' for Bayer Leverkusen. On expected goals it finished 0.27–3.11.
How the call on OFI v Bayer Leverkusen has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 19% / 23% / 58% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 17% / 20% / 63%: the biggest move is Bayer Leverkusen's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- OFI win17%▼ −2
- Draw20%▼ −3
- Bayer Leverkusen win63%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.