22 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

AEK Athens FC vs Iraklis 1908 Super League 1 prediction & result

Allwyn Arena, Athens
Full time4 – 0

Final score: AEK Athens FC 4-0 Iraklis 1908.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% AEK Athens FC, 24% draw, 15% Iraklis 1908 — fair odds of 1.64, 4.17 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AEK Athens FC at 61% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AEK Athens FC99%Draw1%Iraklis 19080%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽B. Vargaassist: R. Marin
11'
⚽L. Jovicassist: S. Pilios
19'
46'
🔁R. Nizetout: Nanu
46'
🔁K. Kaiboueout: C. Rodriguez
46'
🔁K. Kushtaout: E. Koljic
⚽L. Jovicassist: R. Marin
49'
54'
•Pina
57'
🔁I. Lopezout: P. Marques
M. Vitalis
58'
🔁O. Zubkovout: L. Majer
63'
🔁L. Jovicout: Zini
63'
🔁R. Marinout: K. Kairinen
72'
🔁B. Vargaout: D. Kutesa
72'
⚽Zini
75'
🔁M. Gacinovicout: P. Mantalos
79'
81'
🔁Pinaout: Vitor Meer

Match stats — AEK Athens FC vs Iraklis 1908

58%Possession42%
24Shots7
11On target1
5Corners2
2.06xG0.38

Goals against chances

AEK Athens FC4 from 2.06 xGmore than the chances were worth
Iraklis 19080 from 0.38 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AEK Athens FC
  • 1T. Strakosha
  • 12L. Rota
  • 2H. Moukoudi
  • 44F. Relvas
  • 3S. Pilios
  • 10O. Zubkov
  • 27M. Vitalis
  • 18R. Marin
  • 8M. Gacinovic
  • 9L. Jovic
  • 19B. Varga
Substitutes
  • 91A. Brignoli
  • 41M. Balamotis
  • 21D. Vida
  • 15M. Georgiev
  • 5C. Alexiou
  • 20P. Mantalos
  • 16K. Arriaga
  • 6K. Kairinen
  • 14L. Majer
Coach: Marko Nikolic
Iraklis 1908
  • 33G. Athanasiadis
  • 18R. Nizet
  • 2P. Vouros
  • 4S. Chakla
  • 21Pina
  • 30C. Soria
  • 27M. Krainz
  • 22K. Kaiboue
  • 90V. Sourlis
  • 9K. Kushta
  • 11I. Lopez
Substitutes
  • 16P. Tsintotas
  • 1G. Karakasidis
  • 31Nanu
  • 69Y. Roche
  • 23D. Munoz
  • 8N. Radoja
  • 6C. Rodriguez
  • 3Vitor Meer
  • 17N. Anastasiadis
Coach: Walter Mazzarri

Form going into AEK Athens FC vs Iraklis 1908

AEK Athens FC

  • D0-0away to Levski Sofia18 August 2026

Iraklis 1908

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5AEK Athens FC4220112+98
8Iraklis 1908412146-25

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AEK Athens FC vs Iraklis 1908

  • 22 August 2026AEK Athens FC 4–0 Iraklis 1908Super League 1

Leading scorers: AEK Athens FC and Iraklis 1908

AEK Athens FC

  • B. Varga4 goals
  • Zini2 goals
  • L. Jović2 goals

Iraklis 1908

No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.