1 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

Kapaz vs Imisli FK Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Ganja City Stadium, Tovuz
Referee: E. Masiyev
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Kapaz 1-0 Imisli FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Kapaz, 30% draw, 27% Imisli FK — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kapaz at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kapaz97%Draw3%Imisli FK0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

U. Abbasov
14'
46'
🔁D. Cardosoout: M. Yaw
🔁R. Haciyevout: N. Alasgarov
46'
63'
B. Hasanalizada
🔁D. Acquahout: K. Kalunga
64'
⚽N. Alasgarov
77'
N. Alasgarov
78'
79'
🔁F. Nabiyevout: J. Hernandez
🔁Benitoout: A. Samadov
85'
88'
Ronaldo

Line-ups

Kapaz
Coach: Azar Mammadov
Imisli FK
Coach: Ervins Perkons

Form going into Kapaz vs Imisli FK

Kapaz

Premyer Liqa

  • W2-1away to Safa Baku24 October 2026
  • D1-1Zira18 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Araz9 October 2026

Imisli FK

Premyer Liqa

  • W2-1Şamaxı FK25 October 2026
  • W1-0Turan18 October 2026
  • L0-2Qarabag11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Kapaz105231010017
8Imisli FK11326915-611

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kapaz vs Imisli FK

  • 19 April 2026Kapaz 0–1 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
  • 9 February 2026Imisli FK 0–0 KapazPremyer Liqa
  • 24 October 2025Kapaz 0–3 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
  • 4 December 2024Kapaz 1–0 Imisli FKCup
  • 22 March 2015Imisli FK 3–0 KapazBirinci Dasta
  • 9 October 2014Kapaz 3–0 Imisli FKBirinci Dasta

The result against the call

Kapaz beat Imisli FK 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Kapaz at 43%. The goal: N. Alasgarov 77' for Kapaz.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kapaz a 5.5% chance to finish in the bottom two: 3.1% after a win, 5.9% after a draw, 7.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.1%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

For Imisli FK the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 9.0% going in: 6.2% after a win, 9.0% after a draw, 10.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.5%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Kapaz v Imisli FK has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 45% / 30% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is Kapaz's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Kapaz win43%▼ −2
  2. Draw30%=
  3. Imisli FK win27%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.