1 November 2026, 11:00 UTC

Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Shamakhi City Stadium, Shamakhi
Referee: T. Qurbanov
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Şamaxı FK 2-3 Neftchi Baku.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Şamaxı FK, 26% draw, 47% Neftchi Baku — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Neftchi Baku at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Şamaxı FK0%Draw4%Neftchi Baku96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽Gustavo Klismahn
⚽A. Shuaibu
24'
49'
⚽Breno Almeida
Ricardo Fernandes
54'
🔁A. Shuaibuout: T. Akhvlediani
59'
63'
I. Mathew
⚽A. Bouali
64'
64'
🔁F. Vargasout: A. Akinyemi
64'
🔁Gustavo Klismahnout: E. Safarov
65'
🔁A. Skribekout: L. Tupta
🔁E. Adilkhanovout: H. Ismayilov
65'
A. Bagirov
66'
75'
⚽A. Akinyemi
77'
🔁D. Jubitanaout: S. D'Almeida
🔁F. Marquesout: E. Suleymanov
78'
🔁A. Boualiout: U. Cahangirov
78'
🔁O. Mammadovout: O. Tahmazli
78'
83'
🔁I. Mathewout: E. Mahmudov
89'
R. Abbasov

Line-ups

Şamaxı FK
Coach: Aykhan Abbasov
Neftchi Baku
Coach: Yuriy Vernydub

Form going into Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku

Şamaxı FK

Premyer Liqa

  • L1-2away to Imisli FK25 October 2026
  • W3-2Safa Baku16 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Zira10 October 2026

Neftchi Baku

Premyer Liqa

  • D1-1Turan24 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Qarabag17 October 2026
  • D0-0Sabah FA9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Şamaxı FK113531716+114
1Neftchi Baku117312611+1524

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku

  • 10 May 2026Neftchi Baku 3–0 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
  • 28 February 2026Şamaxı FK 2–2 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
  • 16 August 2025Neftchi Baku 1–1 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
  • 7 April 2025Şamaxı FK 0–2 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
  • 31 January 2025Neftchi Baku 1–0 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
  • 8 November 2024Neftchi Baku 2–2 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa

The result against the call

Neftchi Baku won 3–2 at Şamaxı FK. The model had made a win for Neftchi Baku its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Gustavo Klismahn 15' for Neftchi Baku, A. Shuaibu 24' for Şamaxı FK, Breno Almeida 49' for Neftchi Baku, A. Bouali 64' for Şamaxı FK, A. Akinyemi 75' for Neftchi Baku.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Şamaxı FK a 10.7% chance to finish in the top four: 13.8% after a win, 10.0% after a draw, 8.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.6%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.

For Neftchi Baku the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 14.5% going in: 16.2% after a win, 13.0% after a draw, 10.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.2%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.