Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku Premyer Liqa prediction & result
Final score: Sumqayıt 1-1 Safa Baku.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Sumqayıt, 23% draw, 19% Safa Baku — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Sumqayıt at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 16M. Johansson
- 17N. Ahmadzada
- 10R. Vasquez
- 80Keffel
- 42C. Badolo
- 4E. Suliman
- 5Renan Santana
- 55Lucas Black
- 21Tiago Almeida
- 11M. Bangre
- 19R. Kehat
- 22K. Farzullayev
- 12A. Arikhov
- 20A. Suleymali
- 37N. Orucali
- 75N. Orucov
- 3H. Haqverdi
- 29E. Mustafaev
- 97V. Pashayev
- 27I. Barker
- 97Tiago Silva
- 42E. Cafarov
- 21I. Zulfugarli
- 5A. Agcabayov
- 83N. Quliyev
- 6F. Yusifli
- 18B. Dansoko
- 4M. Jarjue
- 17M. Guel
- 11A. Dragu
- 9Luis Felipe
- 12A. Mustabazada
- 99M. Huseynov
- 3T. Quliyev
- 23N. Aliyev
- 55R. Huseynli
- 28M. Musayev
- 8V. Pop
- 34C. Mamengi
- 22O. Diaw
Form going into Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku
Sumqayıt
Premyer Liqa
- L2-3away to Zira23 October 2026
- W2-1Araz16 October 2026
- W4-1Qabala10 October 2026
Safa Baku
Premyer Liqa
- L1-2Kapaz24 October 2026
- L2-3away to Şamaxı FK16 October 2026
- L0-1Turan11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sumqayıt | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Safa Baku | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Sumqayıt and Safa Baku drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sumqayıt at 58% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Guel 31' for Safa Baku, R. Vasquez 71' for Sumqayıt.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sumqayıt a 7.6% chance to finish in the bottom two: 5.4% after a win, 8.3% after a draw, 12.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 8.3%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.
For Safa Baku the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 70.0% going in: 59.5% after a win, 69.7% after a draw, 73.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 69.7%.
Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.