Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Keçiörengücü 0-0 Iğdır FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Keçiörengücü, 25% draw, 23% Iğdır FK — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Keçiörengücü at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. ErdoğanG
- 12M. KeskinD
- 3Wellington NascimentoD
- 4A. ÇelikD
- 37D. AksuD
- 8I. KaraogulM
- 14İ. AkdağM
- 7O. RoshiM
- 20Alcídio RaiceM
- 21F. EzehM
- 55M. DioufF
- 16Oğuzhan AyaydınM
- 45Herculano NabianF
- 9Ö. DemirelF
- 6E. DeveliM
- 77M. FofanaF
- 33S. LuşD
- 10JeffersonM
- 18E. SatılmışG
- 19Enes YilmazM
- 29J. SzumskiG
- 39H. KarabeyD
- 5A. ÖztürkD
- 18L. KouagbaD
- 28S. GönülD
- 7M. CamaraM
- 21D. ErdoğanM
- 24G. CrociataM
- 17S. GürlerM
- 58G. KayaF
- 9A. ÇolakF
- 19Ö. ÖzcanF
- 4A. ÃztürkD
- 6D. ŞenyurtM
- 11Malik YilmazF
- 44L. CaliskanM
- 1T. TepeG
- 22A. SelviD
- 10L. BacunaM
- 61S. AsanD
Form going into Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK
Keçiörengücü
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Bodrum FK9 October 2026
Iğdır FK
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Batman Petrolspor10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Keçiörengücü | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 23 |
| 3 | Iğdır FK | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK
- 8 April 2026Iğdır FK 0–1 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 29 November 2025Keçiörengücü 1–2 Iğdır FK1. Lig
- 16 February 2025Iğdır FK 3–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 22 September 2024Keçiörengücü 2–0 Iğdır FK1. Lig
Leading scorers: Keçiörengücü and Iğdır FK
Keçiörengücü
GoalsAssists
- M. Diouf82
Iğdır FK
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Keçiörengücü and Iğdır FK drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Keçiörengücü at 52% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.15–1.52.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Keçiörengücü a 56.3% chance to finish in the top four: 61.0% after a win, 50.7% after a draw, 47.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 50.7%, 5.6 points lower than before the match.
For Iğdır FK the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 28.9% going in: 35.6% after a win, 29.5% after a draw, 25.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 29.5%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Keçiörengücü v Iğdır FK has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 25% / 23%: the biggest move is Keçiörengücü's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Keçiörengücü win52%▲ +6
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Iğdır FK win23%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.