14 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor 1. Lig prediction & result

Corendon Airlines Park, Antalya
Referee: Altindas, Birkan
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Antalyaspor 0-4 Kayserispor.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Antalyaspor, 28% draw, 26% Kayserispor — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Antalyaspor at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Antalyaspor0%Draw1%Kayserispor99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽Daniel Moreno
24'
⚽Taulant Seferi
🔁Güray Vuralout: Mevlüt Şimşek
29'
37'
⚽Manadi Camaraassist: Jemal Tabidze
🔁Fotios Pseftisout: Abdullah Yigiter
42'
45+5'
Manadi Camara
🔁Soner Dikmenout: Jesper Ceesay
45'
45'
🔁Manadi Camaraout: Ensar Kemaloglu
🔁Doğukan Sinikout: Ahmet Sağat
53'
53'
⚽Taulant Seferi
61'
🔁Benhur Keserout: Florent Hasani
61'
🔁Görkem Sağlamout: Murat Cem Akpinar
68'
🔁Daniel Morenoout: Oğulcan Çağlayan
74'
🔁Sinan Kurtout: Marco Dulca
🔁Pedrinhoout: Samet Yalcin
74'
🔁Sander van de Streekout: Hasan Yakub İlçin
74'
83'
🔁Taulant Seferiout: Ataol Taylan Karapınar

Match stats — Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor

60%Possession40%
12Shots10
1On target7
5Corners1
1.15xG3.07

Goals against chances

Antalyaspor0 from 1.15 xGless than the chances were worth
Kayserispor4 from 3.07 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Antalyaspor 4-2-3-1
  • 77F. PseftisG
  • 7B. BalcıD
  • 4Bugra Tivsiz EnsarD
  • 19S. KarakoçD
  • 11G. VuralD
  • 6S. DikmenM
  • 14PedrinhoM
  • 17E. YeşilyurtM
  • 22S. van de StreekM
  • 70D. SinikM
  • 9Nuno da CostaF
Substitutes
  • 97M. ŞimşekM
  • 15F. NzabaD
  • 44Ismail ChehaimaM
  • 35J. CeesayM
  • 5Ö. BeyazM
  • 89V. SarıD
  • 23A. SağatF
  • 18S. YalçınM
  • 21A. YiğiterG
Coach: O. Özköylü
Kayserispor 4-2-3-1
  • 35G. DeğirmenciG
  • 7M. UçarD
  • 5K. CihanD
  • 3J. TabidzeD
  • 17M. GöçkanD
  • 8S. KurtM
  • 61G. SağlamM
  • 10B. KeserM
  • 28Mamadi CamaráM
  • 97T. SeferiM
  • 27D. MorenoF
Substitutes
  • 20J. BrenetD
  • 88M. DulcaM
  • 16Deniz Eren DonmezerG
  • 9F. HasaniF
  • 19M. HayvaliD
  • 38Ataol KarapinarM
  • 11E. KemaloğluM
  • 99T. SarıarslanF
  • 71O. ÇağlayanF
Coach: A. Gerin

Form going into Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor

Antalyaspor

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Boluspor10 October 2026

Kayserispor

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2Manisa F.K.10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Antalyaspor146262021-120
2Kayserispor149323311+2230

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor

  • 22 February 2026Kayserispor 1–0 AntalyasporSüper Lig
  • 20 September 2025Antalyaspor 1–1 KayserisporSüper Lig
  • 12 May 2025Kayserispor 3–1 AntalyasporSüper Lig
  • 15 December 2024Antalyaspor 2–0 KayserisporSüper Lig
  • 29 January 2024Kayserispor 1–1 AntalyasporSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Antalyaspor and Kayserispor

Antalyaspor

GoalsAssists

  • S. van de Streek42

Kayserispor

GoalsAssists

  • T. Seferi102
  • D. Moreno101
  • F. Hasani50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Kayserispor won 4–0 at Antalyaspor. The model had leaned towards a win for Antalyaspor at 46% and given a win for Kayserispor 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Daniel Moreno 2' for Kayserispor, Taulant Seferi 24' for Kayserispor, Manadi Camara 37' for Kayserispor, Taulant Seferi 53' for Kayserispor. On expected goals it finished 1.15–3.07.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Antalyaspor a 33.2% chance to finish in the top four: 37.8% after a win, 29.5% after a draw, 26.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.3%, 6.9 points lower than before the match.

For Kayserispor the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 60.1% going in: 68.9% after a win, 59.8% after a draw, 55.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.9%, 8.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Antalyaspor v Kayserispor has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 28% / 26%: the biggest move is Antalyaspor's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Antalyaspor win46%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Kayserispor win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.