15 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu, Manisa
Referee: Yildirim Dogukan
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Manisa F.K. 1-1 Esenler Erokspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Manisa F.K., 29% draw, 33% Esenler Erokspor — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Manisa F.K. at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Manisa F.K.96%Draw4%Esenler Erokspor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
Nicolas Janvier
37'
Pape Habib Gueye
K. Yurdakul
39'
57'
Luccas Claro
63'
Enes Alıç
68'
🔁Pape Habib Gueyeout: Kubilay Kanatsızkuş
🔁Osman Kaynakout: Yasin Güreler
74'
75'
🔁Burak Cobanout: Altin Zeqiri
75'
🔁Mame Mor Fayeout: Yusuf Erdoğan
🔁Yusuf Talumout: Osman Kahraman
78'
⚽Ada Ibik
80'
84'
🔁Mikail Okyarout: Recep Niyaz
84'
🔁Nicolas Janvierout: Ferhat Yazgan
🔁Yassine Benrahouout: Yunus Emre Dursun
89'
90'
Guélor Kanga
90+3'
•Recep Niyaz
90+6'
⚽Guélor Kanga (pen)

Match stats — Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor

43%Possession57%
12Shots11
1On target2
5Corners5
0.63xG1.92

Goals against chances

Manisa F.K.1 from 0.63 xGabout what the chances were worth
Esenler Erokspor1 from 1.92 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Manisa F.K. 4-4-2
  • 13Egemen YayliG
  • 22K. YurdakulD
  • 5C. HérelleD
  • 45Ada IbikD
  • 3O. KaynakD
  • 7Y. TalumM
  • 60B. TouréM
  • 6A. ÇankayaM
  • 70A. VargasM
  • 20Y. BenrahouF
  • 23J. AnzianiF
Substitutes
  • 21E. AkboğaM
  • 99Metehan BaşarG
  • 24Y. DursunM
  • 27Y. GürelerD
  • 4F. İnalD
  • 17Osman KahramanF
  • 2Yunus Emre KöseD
  • 11N. LeminaM
  • 10J. LindsethM
Coach: Ahmet Pektaş
Esenler Erokspor 4-1-4-1
  • 22E. CanpolatG
  • 70F. OrakD
  • 21B. ÖztürkD
  • 4Luccas ClaroD
  • 33E. AlićD
  • 7N. JanvierM
  • 11M. FayeM
  • 8G. KangaM
  • 5M. OkyarM
  • 17B. ÇobanM
  • 99P. GuèyeF
Substitutes
  • 27F. YazganM
  • 88A. ZeqiriM
  • 34E. ÇetinG
  • 39E. KaşD
  • 10R. NiyazM
  • 6T. KaçarM
  • 9K. KanatsızkuşF
  • 53Y. ErdoğanM
  • 20M. BuljubašićM
Coach: H. Karaman

Form going into Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor

Manisa F.K.

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Kayserispor10 October 2026

Esenler Erokspor

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to İstanbulspor10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Manisa F.K.143472124-313
10Esenler Erokspor144642018+218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor

  • 13 February 2026Esenler Erokspor 3–1 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
  • 20 September 2025Manisa F.K. 3–4 Esenler Erokspor1. Lig
  • 8 March 2025Esenler Erokspor 1–1 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
  • 28 October 2024Manisa F.K. 0–1 Esenler Erokspor1. Lig

Leading scorers: Manisa F.K. and Esenler Erokspor

Manisa F.K.

GoalsAssists

  • J. Anziani81
  • C. Sylla72

Esenler Erokspor

GoalsAssists

  • G. Kanga51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Manisa F.K. and Esenler Erokspor drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Manisa F.K. at 38% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ada Ibik 80' for Manisa F.K., Guélor Kanga (penalty) 90+6' for Esenler Erokspor. On expected goals it finished 0.63–1.92.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Manisa F.K. a 14.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.4% after a win, 14.1% after a draw, 16.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 14.1%.

For Esenler Erokspor the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 7.0% going in: 9.0% after a win, 6.9% after a draw, 4.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 6.9%.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.