KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: KFUM Oslo 1-1 Lillestrom.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% KFUM Oslo, 26% draw, 42% Lillestrom — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lillestrom at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25Havar JensenG
- 24Håkon RøstenD
- 13Brage SkaretD
- 2Daniel SchneiderD
- 14Hakon Helland HosethM
- 9Martin Tangen VinjorM
- 6Jacob Blixt FlatenM
- 16Jonas Lange HjorthM
- 18Rasmus Eggen VingeF
- 17Julian Bakkeli GonstadF
- 10Bilal NjieF
- 22Bjorn Martin KristensenF
- 4Momodou Lion NjieD
- 42David Hickson GyeduF
- 19Eirik Franke SaunesD
- 29Isaiah Zion Kabi SkovsgaardF
- 31Darian MinkG
- 33Amin NouriD
- 21Sander Hansen SjøkvistD
- 30Marko VuckovicM
- 12Pontus DahlbergG
- 2Lars RangerD
- 28Ruben GabrielsenD
- 47Stian KristiansenD
- 11Frederik ElkærD
- 26Yaw PaintsilM
- 29Ylldren IbrahimajM
- 18Kevin Martin KrygardM
- 14Gustav Kjolstad NyheimM
- 20Felix VáM
- 77Fredrik GulbrandsenF
- 7Karl Linus AlperudM
- 17Eric KitolanoM
- 15Gustav NordhF
- 16Henrik MellandM
- 1Stephan HagerupG
- 5Sander Moen FossD
- 3Sturla OttesenD
- 6Harald WoxenM
- 25Seun AkanjiM
Form going into KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom
KFUM Oslo
- W1-0away to Sandefjord7 August 2026
Lillestrom
- L0-2Rosenborg9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | KFUM Oslo | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 22 |
| 5 | Lillestrom | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom
- 15 August 2026KFUM Oslo 1–1 LillestromEliteserien
- 18 July 2026Lillestrom 2–1 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 7 February 2026Lillestrom 7–2 KFUM OsloFriendlies Clubs
- 25 June 2025Lillestrom 2–0 KFUM OsloNM Cupen
- 28 February 2025Lillestrom 0–5 KFUM OsloFriendlies Clubs
- 30 August 2024KFUM Oslo 2–0 LillestromEliteserien
Leading scorers: KFUM Oslo and Lillestrom
KFUM Oslo
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Lillestrom
- Vá5 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.