Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Kifisia 2-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% Kifisia, 29% draw, 52% Olympiakos Piraeus — fair odds of 5.26, 3.45 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Greek Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Olympiakos Piraeus at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99M. RamírezG
- 48Tiago MansoD
- 34C. JoliboisD
- 24R. van EijmaD
- 23L. AbandaD
- 28Á. SagalM
- 17K. RoukounakisM
- 8Bernardo MartinsM
- 7J. AntonisseM
- 72A. ChristópoulosF
- 6Jorge PomboF
- 2K. ApostolakisM
- 15A. AnagnostopoulosG
- 33Hugo SousaD
- 21Nektarios KaloskamisD
- 31I. KousoulosM
- 18G. KyriopoulosF
- 44Vangelis ManganasM
- 11Jordi MboulaF
- 5A. PetkovD
- 1S. OrtegaG
- 27M. PedersenD
- 45P. RetsosD
- 5L. PirolaD
- 71N. TiknizyanD
- 15G. PuertaM
- 19R. FreulerM
- 20Jota SilvaM
- 22ChiquinhoM
- 73Joel RocaM
- 11R. YaremchukF
- 17L. BaileyF
- 10Gelson MartinsM
- 7K. FortounisM
- 34A. GonzálezF
- 32S. HezzeM
- 6David CarmoD
- 99M. MouandilmadjiF
- 70S. OnyemaechiD
- 31B. PopovićG
Form going into Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus
Kifisia
Super League 1
- W3-2away to Iraklis 190824 October 2026
- L1-2Aris Thessalonikis18 October 2026
- W2-0Panetolikos11 October 2026
Olympiakos Piraeus
Super League 1
- W5-0Kalamata25 October 2026
- W2-0away to Panetolikos18 October 2026
- W1-0Panathinaikos11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kifisia | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 14 |
| 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus
- 20 December 2025Olympiakos Piraeus 1–1 KifisiaSuper League 1
- 9 November 2025Kifisia 1–3 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 14 January 2024Kifisia 2–3 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 24 September 2023Olympiakos Piraeus 4–0 KifisiaSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus
Kifisia
GoalsAssists
- Jorge Pombo42
- Á. Sagal41
Olympiakos Piraeus
GoalsAssists
- Jota Silva51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Olympiakos Piraeus won 3–2 at Kifisia. The model had made a win for Olympiakos Piraeus its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Joel Roca 46' for Olympiakos Piraeus, Marius Mouandilmadji 71' for Olympiakos Piraeus, Jordi Mboula 80' for Kifisia, Gerson Liliano Saches Sousa 90+1' for Kifisia, Gelson Martins 90+5' for Olympiakos Piraeus. On expected goals it finished 1.65–1.05.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kifisia a 8.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.2% after a win, 8.2% after a draw, 10.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.1%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.
For Olympiakos Piraeus the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 13.4% going in: 15.7% after a win, 10.6% after a draw, 8.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.7%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Kifisia v Olympiakos Piraeus has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 20% / 31% / 49% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 19% / 29% / 52%: the biggest move is Olympiakos Piraeus's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Kifisia win19%▼ −1
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Olympiakos Piraeus win52%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.