Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Levadiakos 3-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Levadiakos, 30% draw, 39% Aris Thessalonikis — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Aris Thessalonikis at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 55N. EliasiG
- 14G. ManthatisD
- 23G. KornezosD
- 24P. LiagasD
- 4Jonathan PanzoD
- 3M. VichosD
- 8G. NikasM
- 6Mohamed ElnenyM
- 18I. KostiM
- 99M. CobnanF
- 30Octavian PopescuF
- 9O. OžegovićF
- 17D. EmmanouilidisF
- 20K. GoumasM
- 66M. NdiayeM
- 33Lucas AnackerG
- 15A. ȘutM
- 77G. VrakasF
- 11A. UrziF
- 37I. TsivelekidisD
- 33Ricardo VelhoG
- 2J. PétrisD
- 4FabianoD
- 44B. ŠutaloD
- 3O. RichardsD
- 18M. HonglaM
- 97F. JensenM
- 7B. GarréM
- 8C. KouaméM
- 29S. PapasarafianosM
- 9T. KadewereF
- 1S. DioudisG
- 22M. VoriazidisM
- 14D. SanoussiM
- 17Rafa MirF
- 21L. MajkićG
- 30Christos KamtsisD
- 70G. GianniotasF
- 6K. GalanopoulosM
- 20T. Dele-BashiruM
Form going into Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis
Levadiakos
Super League 1
- D0-0away to Asteras Tripolis24 October 2026
- D0-0Volos NFC17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Iraklis 190811 October 2026
Aris Thessalonikis
Super League 1
- W3-1Atromitos25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Kifisia18 October 2026
- W3-2Volos NFC11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Levadiakos | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 6 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis
- 17 May 2026Aris Thessalonikis 3–0 LevadiakosSuper League 1
- 5 April 2026Levadiakos 1–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 25 January 2026Aris Thessalonikis 2–2 LevadiakosSuper League 1
- 26 October 2025Levadiakos 1–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 16 February 2025Levadiakos 4–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 3 November 2024Aris Thessalonikis 3–1 LevadiakosSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis
Levadiakos
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Aris Thessalonikis
GoalsAssists
- Fabiano40
- C. Kouamé30
- T. Kadewere30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Levadiakos beat Aris Thessalonikis 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Aris Thessalonikis at 39% and given a win for Levadiakos 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Giorgos Nikas 8' for Levadiakos, Marios Vichos (penalty) 42' for Levadiakos, Alexandru Grigoraş Pantea 87' for Levadiakos. On expected goals it finished 2.45–0.36.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Levadiakos a 63.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 54.6% after a win, 65.3% after a draw, 70.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.6%, 9.2 points lower than before the match.
For Aris Thessalonikis the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 15.4% going in: 19.9% after a win, 13.6% after a draw, 10.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.8%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Levadiakos v Aris Thessalonikis has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 34% / 29% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 31% / 30% / 39%: the biggest move is Levadiakos's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Levadiakos win31%▼ −3
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Aris Thessalonikis win39%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.