Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Panathinaikos 2-0 AEK Athens FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Panathinaikos, 30% draw, 36% AEK Athens FC — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Greek Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
AEK Athens FC at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Iñaki PeñaG
- 2D. CalabriaD
- 6S. de VrijD
- 55R. van DrongelenD
- 77G. KiriakopoulosD
- 99L. GarcíaM
- 22E. CamaraM
- 42K. KangwaM
- 10Santino AndinoM
- 7A. TettehF
- 9C. DessersF
- 8Adriano JagušićM
- 3Georgios Marios KatrisD
- 4Pedro ChirivellaM
- 70K. KotsarisG
- 26I. LouzaM
- 14E. Palmer-BrownD
- 28F. PellistriM
- 74E. RastoderF
- 5A. Salah-EddineD
- 91A. BrignoliG
- 12L. RotaD
- 2H. MoukoudiD
- 44Filipe RelvasD
- 3S. PiliosD
- 10O. ZubkovM
- 27M. VitálisM
- 18R. MarinM
- 14L. MajerM
- 19B. VargaF
- 9L. JovićF
- 16K. ArriagaM
- 41Marios BalamotisG
- 90ZiniF
- 8M. GaćinovićM
- 7D. KutesaM
- 22C. LykogiannisD
- 20P. MantalosM
- 15M. TodorskiD
- 31Georgios SarakasidisG
Form going into Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC
Panathinaikos
Super League 1
- W1-0away to Volos NFC25 October 2026
- W5-1Asteras Tripolis18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus11 October 2026
AEK Athens FC
Super League 1
- W5-0Panetolikos24 October 2026
- W3-0OFI10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Volos NFC20 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 27 |
| 3 | AEK Athens FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos
AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each, with 1 drawn.
The record
Panathinaikos won the last one 2–0 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 |
| Panathinaikos | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Super League 1Panathinaikos 2–0 AEK Athens FC - 10 May 2026
Super League 1AEK Athens FC 2–1 Panathinaikos - 3 May 2026
Super League 1Panathinaikos 0–0 AEK Athens FC - 18 Jan 2026
Super League 1AEK Athens FC 4–0 Panathinaikos - 30 Nov 2025
Super League 1Panathinaikos 2–3 AEK Athens FC - 4 May 2025
Super League 1AEK Athens FC 1–2 Panathinaikos - 6 Apr 2025
Super League 1Panathinaikos 3–1 AEK Athens FC
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, AEK Athens FC's attack rates 10% above Panathinaikos', and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 1.24 | 0.74 |
| Panathinaikos | 1.13 | 0.74 |
Leading scorers: Panathinaikos and AEK Athens FC
Panathinaikos
GoalsAssists
- A. Tetteh51
- C. Dessers40
- V. Taborda31
AEK Athens FC
GoalsAssists
- B. Varga60
- L. Jović50
- Zini30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Panathinaikos beat AEK Athens FC 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for AEK Athens FC at 36% and given a win for Panathinaikos 34%. The goals: Andrews Tetteh 1' for Panathinaikos, Santino Andino 49' for Panathinaikos. Sent off: Kings Kangwa (Panathinaikos) 70'. On expected goals it finished 0.64–1.08.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Panathinaikos a 34.6% chance to finish top of the regular season: 47.7% after a win, 34.3% after a draw, 21.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.7%, 13.1 points higher than before the match.
For AEK Athens FC the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 42.9% going in: 56.5% after a win, 40.8% after a draw, 30.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.3%, 12.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.