1 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis Super League 1 prediction & result

Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
Referee: Matsoukas, Michalis
Full time2 – 1

Final score: PAOK 2-1 Asteras Tripolis.

Before kick-off the model made it 68% PAOK, 20% draw, 12% Asteras Tripolis — fair odds of 1.47, 5.00 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

PAOK at 68%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PAOK98%Draw2%Asteras Tripolis0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Cherif Ndiayeassist: Andrija Živković
8'
Jonjoe Kenny
34'
Shola Shoretire
38'
39'
⚽Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka
42'
Dimitrios Kourbelis
62'
🔁Ricardo Viana Filhoout: Giannis Bouzoukis
Jonjoe Kenny
63'
67'
Franz Brorsson
🔁Christos Zafeirisout: Kristijan Jakić
68'
🔁Shola Shoretireout: Aritz Elustondo
68'
🔁Cherif Ndiayeout: Anestis Mythou
68'
73'
Franz Brorsson
76'
🔁Franco Orozcoout: Antonis Papakanellos
76'
🔁Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpiokaout: Dimitrios Laskaris
🔁Baptiste Santamariaout: Greg Taylor
80'
🔁Diego Costaout: Mady Camara
85'
⚽Anestis Mythou
87'
90+1'
🔁Alejandro·Mendez Garciaout: Nikos Kaltsas

Match stats — PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis

63%Possession37%
12Shots9
7On target3
8Corners3
2.09xG0.83

Goals against chances

PAOK2 from 2.09 xGabout what the chances were worth
Asteras Tripolis1 from 0.83 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

PAOK 4-4-2
  • 41D. MonastirlisG
  • 3J. KennyD
  • 4P. HatzidiakosD
  • 19Diego CostaD
  • 13D. GiannoulisD
  • 14A. ŽivkovićM
  • 20C. ZafeirisM
  • 7B. SantamaríaM
  • 47S. ShoretireM
  • 27C. NdiayeF
  • 24S. BanzaF
Substitutes
  • 11TaisonF
  • 21A. BabaD
  • 97D. BataoulasD
  • 2M. CamaraM
  • 52D. ChatsidisF
  • 6ElustondoD
  • 18K. JakićM
  • 56A. MythouF
  • 32G. TaylorD
Coach: A. Lisci
Asteras Tripolis 4-4-1-1
  • 1N. PapadopoulosG
  • 27G. KotsirasD
  • 16F. BrorssonD
  • 32J. SilvaD
  • 28Alex MéndezD
  • 19F. OrozcoM
  • 21D. KourbelisM
  • 10Eder GonzálezM
  • 75B. Mbunga KimpiokaM
  • 39RicardinhoM
  • 9F. MachedaF
Substitutes
  • 14J. ChiccoM
  • 6K. ChrisopoulosD
  • 64P. DeligiannidisD
  • 22Chrysanthos GezosF
  • 11K. KetuF
  • 51Giannis KriarasG
  • 74D. LaskarisD
  • 44A. PapakanellosM
  • 80B. PérezM
Coach: Giannis Kontoes

Form going into PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis

PAOK

Super League 1

  • L1-2away to OFI25 October 2026
  • W2-1Iraklis 190818 October 2026
  • L1-3Kalamata12 October 2026

Asteras Tripolis

Super League 1

  • D0-0Levadiakos24 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Panathinaikos18 October 2026
  • W2-1Atromitos10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4PAOK106131913+619
11Asteras Tripolis10145918-97

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis

  • 1 March 2026PAOK 2–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
  • 28 September 2025Asteras Tripolis 3–3 PAOKSuper League 1
  • 2 March 2025PAOK 2–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
  • 24 November 2024Asteras Tripolis 1–2 PAOKSuper League 1
  • 17 December 2023Asteras Tripolis 1–4 PAOKSuper League 1
  • 20 August 2023PAOK 3–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1

Leading scorers: PAOK and Asteras Tripolis

PAOK

GoalsAssists

  • C. Ndiaye40
  • A. Živković35
  • D. Pelkas30

Asteras Tripolis

GoalsAssists

  • F. Macheda31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

PAOK beat Asteras Tripolis 2–1. The model had made a win for PAOK its most likely outcome, at 68%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Cherif Ndiaye 8' for PAOK, Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka 39' for Asteras Tripolis, Anestis Mythou 87' for PAOK. Sent off: Jonjoe Kenny (PAOK) 63', Franz Brorsson (Asteras Tripolis) 73'. On expected goals it finished 2.09–0.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave PAOK a 76.3% chance to finish in the top four: 78.9% after a win, 70.6% after a draw, 65.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.9%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

For Asteras Tripolis the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 46.3% going in: 28.6% after a win, 41.3% after a draw, 49.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.2%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.