29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Tottenham vs Newcastle Premier League prediction & result

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Tottenham 0-2 Newcastle.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Tottenham, 27% draw, 34% Newcastle — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Tottenham at 39% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tottenham0%Draw1%Newcastle99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Micky van de Ven
3'
13'
Nico González
62'
⚽A. Elangaassist: A. Dedic
🔁A. Robertsonout: D. Udogie
68'
🔁M. Telout: M. Kudus
68'
🔁A. Grayout: M. Moore
68'
71'
🔁Nicoout: S. Steur
71'
🔁J. Willockout: N. Woltemade
72'
⚽Y. Wissaassist: N. Woltemade
🔁S. Tonaliout: D. Solanke
75'
79'
Sven Botman
82'
🔁Y. Wissaout: J. Ramsey
82'
🔁A. Elangaout: J. Murphy
90+3'
🔁H. Barnesout: B. Toure

Match stats — Tottenham vs Newcastle

58%Possession42%
17Shots11
6On target2
9Corners7
1.04xG0.75

Goals against chances

Tottenham0 from 1.04 xGless than the chances were worth
Newcastle2 from 0.75 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Tottenham 4-2-3-1
  • 31A. KinskyG
  • 14A. GrayD
  • 6J. P. van HeckeD
  • 37M. van de VenD
  • 3A. RobertsonD
  • 30R. BentancurM
  • 16S. TonaliM
  • 23P. PorroM
  • 18M. FernandesM
  • 11M. TelM
  • 22O. MarmoushF
Substitutes
  • 39M. DubravkaG
  • 33B. DaviesD
  • 5M. SenesiD
  • 13D. UdogieD
  • 20M. KudusM
  • 8C. GallagherM
  • 15L. BergvallM
  • 47M. MooreF
  • 19D. SolankeF
Coach: Roberto De Zerbi
Newcastle 4-2-3-1
  • 21L. HornicekG
  • 37A. DedicD
  • 12M. ThiawD
  • 4S. BotmanD
  • 3L. HallD
  • 6NicoM
  • 67L. MileyM
  • 19A. ElangaM
  • 28J. WillockM
  • 11H. BarnesM
  • 9Y. WissaF
Substitutes
  • 24E. JaouenG
  • 51L. ShaharD
  • 5F. ScharD
  • 41J. RamseyM
  • 8A. BambaM
  • 17B. ToureF
  • 14S. SteurM
  • 23J. MurphyM
  • 27N. WoltemadeF
Coach: Matthias Jaissle

Form going into Tottenham vs Newcastle

Tottenham

  • L0-3away to Brentford22 August 2026

Newcastle

  • D2-2Liverpool23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Tottenham402205-52
12Newcastle412178-15

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tottenham vs Newcastle

  • 29 August 2026Tottenham 0–2 NewcastlePremier League
  • 10 February 2026Tottenham 1–2 NewcastlePremier League
  • 2 December 2025Newcastle 2–2 TottenhamPremier League
  • 29 October 2025Newcastle 2–0 TottenhamLeague Cup
  • 3 August 2025Tottenham 1–1 NewcastleFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 January 2025Tottenham 1–2 NewcastlePremier League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.