29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Tottenham vs Newcastle Premier League prediction & result

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Tottenham 0-2 Newcastle.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Tottenham, 27% draw, 34% Newcastle — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Tottenham at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tottenham0%Draw1%Newcastle99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Micky van de Ven
3'
13'
Nico González
62'
⚽A. Elangaassist: A. Dedic
🔁A. Robertsonout: D. Udogie
68'
🔁M. Telout: M. Kudus
68'
🔁A. Grayout: M. Moore
68'
71'
🔁Nicoout: S. Steur
71'
🔁J. Willockout: N. Woltemade
72'
⚽Y. Wissaassist: N. Woltemade
🔁S. Tonaliout: D. Solanke
75'
79'
Sven Botman
82'
🔁Y. Wissaout: J. Ramsey
82'
🔁A. Elangaout: J. Murphy
90+3'
🔁H. Barnesout: B. Toure

Match stats — Tottenham vs Newcastle

58%Possession42%
17Shots11
6On target2
9Corners7
1.04xG0.75

Goals against chances

Tottenham0 from 1.04 xGless than the chances were worth
Newcastle2 from 0.75 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Tottenham 4-2-3-1
  • 31A. KinskyG
  • 14A. GrayD
  • 6J. P. van HeckeD
  • 37M. van de VenD
  • 3A. RobertsonD
  • 30R. BentancurM
  • 16S. TonaliM
  • 23P. PorroM
  • 18M. FernandesM
  • 11M. TelM
  • 22O. MarmoushF
Substitutes
  • 39M. DubravkaG
  • 33B. DaviesD
  • 5M. SenesiD
  • 13D. UdogieD
  • 20M. KudusM
  • 8C. GallagherM
  • 15L. BergvallM
  • 47M. MooreF
  • 19D. SolankeF
Coach: Roberto De Zerbi
Newcastle 4-2-3-1
  • 21L. HornicekG
  • 37A. DedicD
  • 12M. ThiawD
  • 4S. BotmanD
  • 3L. HallD
  • 6NicoM
  • 67L. MileyM
  • 19A. ElangaM
  • 28J. WillockM
  • 11H. BarnesM
  • 9Y. WissaF
Substitutes
  • 24E. JaouenG
  • 51L. ShaharD
  • 5F. ScharD
  • 41J. RamseyM
  • 8A. BambaM
  • 17B. ToureF
  • 14S. SteurM
  • 23J. MurphyM
  • 27N. WoltemadeF
Coach: Matthias Jaissle

Form going into Tottenham vs Newcastle

Tottenham

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Brentford22 August 2026

Newcastle

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Liverpool23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Tottenham103341011-112
12Newcastle103341316-312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tottenham vs Newcastle

  • 10 February 2026Tottenham 1–2 NewcastlePremier League
  • 2 December 2025Newcastle 2–2 TottenhamPremier League
  • 29 October 2025Newcastle 2–0 TottenhamLeague Cup
  • 3 August 2025Tottenham 1–1 NewcastleFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 January 2025Tottenham 1–2 NewcastlePremier League

The full Tottenham vs Newcastle record →

The result against the call

Newcastle won 2–0 at Tottenham. The model had leaned towards a win for Tottenham at 39% and given a win for Newcastle 34%. The goals: A. Elanga 62' for Newcastle, Y. Wissa 72' for Newcastle. On expected goals it finished 1.04–0.75.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.