25 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Start vs Sandefjord Eliteserien prediction & result

Kristiansand
Referee: Rohit Saggi
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Start 1-0 Sandefjord.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Start, 28% draw, 43% Sandefjord — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sandefjord at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Start95%Draw5%Sandefjord0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

46'
🔁Sebastian Holm Mathisenout: Oscar Forsmo Kapskarmo
🔁Nikolaos Koutsakosout: Eirik Schulze
61'
⚽Hakon Lorentzenassist: Eirik Schulze
72'
72'
🔁Sander Risan Mörkout: Ervin Gigovic
72'
🔁Evangelos Patoulidisout: Bendik Slotfeldt Berntsen
🔁Ousmane Diallo Toureout: Johan Meyer
80'
81'
🔁gustav hojbjergout: Martin Hellan
84'
🔁Xander Lambrixout: Hakon Krogelien
Jesper Cornelius
87'
87'
Bendik Slotfeldt Berntsen
🔁Deni Dashaevout: Altin Ujkani
89'

Match stats — Start vs Sandefjord

33%Possession67%
12Shots18
2On target0
5Corners5
1.19xG1.49

Goals against chances

Start1 from 1.19 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sandefjord0 from 1.49 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Start 5-3-2
  • 26M. SjøengG
  • 12D. DashaevD
  • 5S. GranheimD
  • 6J. NorheimD
  • 29E. ReitanD
  • 27O. ToureD
  • 18M. UglandM
  • 20H. LorentzenM
  • 10S. MvouéM
  • 17J. CorneliusF
  • 9N. KoutsakosF
Substitutes
  • 8N. JojićF
  • 37Filip LienM
  • 4J. MeyerD
  • 15M. NordalF
  • 2F. PålerudD
  • 35santino samuyiwaF
  • 11E. SchulzeM
  • 24S. Strand-KolbjørnsenG
  • 3A. UjkaniD
Coach: A. Karadas
Sandefjord 4-3-3
  • 30E. HadayaG
  • 5gustav hojbjergD
  • 13R. HoltenD
  • 44X. LambrixD
  • 4F. PedersenD
  • 14E. PettersenM
  • 8T. BørkeeietM
  • 6S. MørkM
  • 27J. DunsbyF
  • 24S. MathisenF
  • 7E. PatoulidisF
Substitutes
  • 10E. GigovićD
  • 1A. GrønnebergG
  • 2M. HellanD
  • 9O. KapskarmoF
  • 16H. KrogelienD
  • 32D. SkaarudF
  • 37J. VesterM
  • 3V. EgeliD
  • 19Bendik BerntsenF
Coach: Andreas Tegström

Form going into Start vs Sandefjord

Start

Eliteserien

  • L1-6away to Molde18 October 2026
  • L2-4Ham-Kam11 October 2026

Sandefjord

Eliteserien

  • L0-2Lillestrom18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Rosenborg10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Start2654172759-3219
13Sandefjord2677123139-828

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Start vs Sandefjord

  • 20 September 2026Sandefjord 3–0 StartEliteserien
  • 8 March 2026Sandefjord 3–2 StartFriendlies Clubs
  • 5 March 2023Start 1–0 SandefjordFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 May 2021Start 1–1 SandefjordFriendlies Clubs
  • 24 October 2020Start 0–1 SandefjordEliteserien
  • 21 June 2020Sandefjord 2–2 StartEliteserien

Leading scorers: Start and Sandefjord

Start

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.

Sandefjord

GoalsAssists

  • E. Patoulidis83

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Start beat Sandefjord 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sandefjord at 43% and given a win for Start 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Hakon Lorentzen 72' for Start. On expected goals it finished 1.19–1.49.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sandefjord a 17.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.1% after a win, 21.1% after a draw, 27.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.1%, 9.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Start v Sandefjord has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 31% / 29% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 29% / 28% / 43%: the biggest move is Sandefjord's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Start win29%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Sandefjord win43%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.