25 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund Eliteserien prediction & result

Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg
Referee: Mischa Kellerhals
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Aalesund.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Sarpsborg 08 FF, 25% draw, 30% Aalesund — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sarpsborg 08 FF7%Draw90%Aalesund3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Sigurd Rosted
13'
19'
⚽Mathias Christensenassist: Sander Erik Kartum
35'
Ólafur Gudmundsson
40'
🔁Stefano Vecchiaout: Emil Engqvist
45'
🔁Isak Gabriel Skotheimout: Paul Ngongo
🔁Peter Reinhardsenout: Anders Hiim
45'
🔁Noa Williamsout: Bop Guèye
45'
47'
Marius Andresen
🔁Bjorn Utvikout: Marius Lode
62'
🔁Sander Johan Christiansenout: Aimar Sher
62'
🔁Eirik Wichneout: Camil Mmaee Nwameben
79'
Daniel Seland Karlsbakk
80'
84'
🔁Marius Andresenout: Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen
⚽Camil Mmaee Nwamebenassist: Daniel Seland Karlsbakk
85'
⚽Anders Hiim
90+4'

Match stats — Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund

72%Possession28%
34Shots7
6On target2
20Corners4
3.03xG0.32

Goals against chances

Sarpsborg 08 FF2 from 3.03 xGless than the chances were worth
Aalesund1 from 0.32 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-4-2
  • 87L. ØyG
  • 32E. WichneD
  • 4B. UtvikD
  • 24S. RostedD
  • 20P. ReinhardsenD
  • 10S. SørliM
  • 8S. ChristiansenM
  • 77O. SkarsemM
  • 17N. WilliamsM
  • 22V. HalvorsenF
  • 11D. KarlsbakkF
Substitutes
  • 7Camil Mmaee NwamebenM
  • 18Bop GueyeM
  • 21A. HiimD
  • 5L. HøylandD
  • 1J. PrytsG
  • 2M. LodeD
  • 33A. NibeM
  • 12C. NiyukuriD
  • 6A. SherM
Coach: E. Sel
Aalesund 5-3-2
  • 1Luca PodlechG
  • 7K. NessøD
  • 2M. AndresenD
  • 28D. MbackeD
  • 3Ó. GuðmundssonD
  • 14U. CharlesD
  • 21M. ChristensenM
  • 18E. HagenM
  • 19S. KartumM
  • 8I. SkotheimF
  • 23S. VecchiaF
Substitutes
  • 15E. OsenbrochM
  • 16J. ØrsahlD
  • 9P. NgongoF
  • 17E. MyrlidF
  • 26T. LarsenG
  • 5A. Hammer KjelsenD
  • 22E. EngqvistD
  • 38T. LeikangerM
Coach: K. Rekdal

Form going into Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Eliteserien

  • L0-3Rosenborg18 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Aalesund11 October 2026

Aalesund

Eliteserien

  • W4-1away to Kristiansund BK17 October 2026
  • L2-4Sarpsborg 08 FF11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sarpsborg 08 FF2687113242-1031
15Aalesund2659124560-1524

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund

  • 11 October 2026Aalesund 2–4 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 22 October 2023Aalesund 3–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 29 May 2023Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–1 AalesundEliteserien
  • 11 September 2022Aalesund 1–3 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 22 May 2022Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–2 AalesundEliteserien
  • 13 September 2020Aalesund 0–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien

Leading scorers: Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund

Sarpsborg 08 FF

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.

Aalesund

GoalsAssists

  • M. Christensen116
  • H. M. Reed83

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Aalesund 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Sarpsborg 08 FF at 45%. The goals: Mathias Christensen 19' for Aalesund, Camil Mmaee Nwameben 85' for Sarpsborg 08 FF, Anders Hiim 90+4' for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Sent off: Ólafur Gudmundsson (Aalesund) 35'. On expected goals it finished 3.03–0.32.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sarpsborg 08 FF a 2.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 1.8% after a draw, 5.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.

For Aalesund the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 43.7% going in: 26.2% after a win, 45.3% after a draw, 53.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.2%, 9.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.