Gais vs IFK Goteborg Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: Gais 1-1 IFK Goteborg.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Gais, 27% draw, 26% IFK Goteborg — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Gais at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gais vs IFK Goteborg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. KrasniqiG
- 6A. WängbergD
- 12R. FrejD
- 24F. BeckmanD
- 5R. ThomassonD
- 8W. MilovanovicM
- 7J. ÅbergM
- 10H. SletsjøeM
- 16M. AnderssonF
- 21N. VasićF
- 2M. de BrienneF
- 4O. ÅgrenD
- 22A. CardaklijaD
- 31C. GraviusM
- 33A. HermansenG
- 25Jonas LindbergM
- 9G. LundgrenM
- 11R. NiklassonF
- 20S. SalterF
- 27M. BawaM
- 12V. AnderssonG
- 18F. ErikssonD
- 5J. BagerD
- 6H. HermannssonD
- 22Noah TolfD
- 24O. ManssonM
- 15D. KruseM
- 4K. AckermannM
- 8S. LarssonM
- 14T. HeintzM
- 7Alexander Illum SimmelhackF
- 23K. ÞórðarsonM
- 35N. LundenM
- 9M. FengerF
- 28I. SeiduD
- 26E. FasthM
- 27A. BorénF
- 25E. BishesariG
- 20G. ErsoyD
- 30T. CoimbraF
Form going into Gais vs IFK Goteborg
Gais
Allsvenskan
- L2-4away to Orgryte IS18 October 2026
IFK Goteborg
Allsvenskan
- D2-2away to AIK Stockholm17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Gais | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 40 |
| 10 | IFK Goteborg | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gais vs IFK Goteborg
- 26 April 2026IFK Goteborg 2–2 GaisAllsvenskan
- 11 August 2025Gais 0–1 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 28 April 2025IFK Goteborg 1–1 GaisAllsvenskan
- 30 September 2024IFK Goteborg 2–0 GaisAllsvenskan
- 6 May 2024Gais 2–1 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 26 February 2023Gais 2–1 IFK GoteborgSvenska Cupen
Leading scorers: Gais and IFK Goteborg
Gais
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
IFK Goteborg
GoalsAssists
- S. Larsson83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gais and IFK Goteborg drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Gais at 47% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Nikola·Vasic (penalty) 32' for Gais, Sam Larsson 72' for IFK Goteborg. On expected goals it finished 1.68–1.61.
How the call on Gais v IFK Goteborg has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is IFK Goteborg's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Gais win47%▼ −1
- Draw27%▼ −1
- IFK Goteborg win26%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.