2 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit Premier League prediction & result

Samara Arena, Samara
Referee: Evgeniy Kukulyak
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Krylia Sovetov 0-3 Zenit.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Krylia Sovetov, 25% draw, 49% Zenit — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zenit at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Krylia Sovetov0%Draw1%Zenit99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
•Jhon Jhon
21'
⚽Aleksandr Sobolev (pen)
26'
⚽Aleksandr Sobolev (pen)
S. Bulatov
32'
Nikita Saltykov
37'
Sergey Bozhin
54'
58'
Wílmar Barrios
63'
🔁Jhon Jhonout: Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santos
🔁Maksim Vityugovout: Mihajlo Banjac
64'
🔁Nikolay Rasskazovout: Vitaliy Shitov
64'
Dani Fernández
65'
67'
⚽Aleksandr Sobolevassist: Maksim Glushenkov
Yuriy Gorshkov
71'
73'
⚽Artem Karpukasassist: Maksim Glushenkov
74'
🔁Wílmar Barriosout: Nuraly Alip
74'
🔁Gustavo Mantuanout: Roman Vega
🔁Amar Rahmanovićout: Islam Chesnokov
78'
🔁Fernando Constanzaout: Kirill Stolbov
79'
79'
🔁Luiz Henriqueout: Felipe Augusto
79'
🔁Aleksandr Sobolevout: Daniil Kondakov
81'
Roman Vega
🔁Nikita Saltykovout: Ilzat Akhmetov
83'

Match stats — Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit

44%Possession56%
8Shots14
1On target6
4Corners6
0.6xG2.31

Goals against chances

Krylia Sovetov0 from 0.60 xGless than the chances were worth
Zenit3 from 2.31 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Krylia Sovetov 4-2-3-1
  • 80N. KokarevG
  • 72Dani FernándezD
  • 23N. ChernovD
  • 47S. BozhinD
  • 2K. PecheninD
  • 4Y. GorshkovM
  • 22Fernando CostanzaM
  • 15N. RasskazovM
  • 8M. VityugovM
  • 14N. SaltykovM
  • 11A. RahmanovićF
Substitutes
  • 7M. BanjacM
  • 78D. Malikov PavlovichM
  • 5D. OrozD
  • 73V. ShitovF
  • 67Kazbek MukailovF
  • 97I. AkhmetovM
  • 17I. ChesnokovM
  • 20K. StolbovM
  • 39E. FrolovG
Coach: S. Bulatov
Zenit 4-2-3-1
  • 57B. MoskvichevG
  • 31Gustavo MantuanD
  • 33NinoD
  • 25K. AndradeD
  • 3Douglas SantosD
  • 5W. BarriosM
  • 93A. KarpukasM
  • 11Luiz HenriqueM
  • 10M. GlushenkovM
  • 14Jhon JhonM
  • 7A. SobolevF
Substitutes
  • 78I. DiveevD
  • 9Felipe AugustoF
  • 15V. KaravaevD
  • 61D. KondakovM
  • 38Amir MusaevM
  • 20Pedro HenriqueF
  • 51V. ShilovF
  • 66R. VegaD
  • 8WendelM
Coach: S. Semak

Form going into Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit

Krylia Sovetov

Premier League

  • W2-0away to Rubin24 October 2026
  • L1-2Fakel17 October 2026
  • D1-1Spartak Moscow10 October 2026

Zenit

Premier League

  • W2-0Dinamo Makhachkala25 October 2026
  • W3-2Akhmat18 October 2026
  • W3-2away to FC Krasnodar10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Krylia Sovetov144641920-118
1Zenit1410133215+1731

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit

  • 19 August 2026Krylia Sovetov 0–0 ZenitCup
  • 4 April 2026Zenit 2–1 Krylia SovetovPremier League
  • 9 November 2025Krylia Sovetov 1–1 ZenitPremier League
  • 1 December 2024Zenit 2–3 Krylia SovetovPremier League
  • 20 July 2024Krylia Sovetov 0–4 ZenitPremier League
  • 30 March 2024Krylya Sovetov 1–1 Zenit Saint PetersburgPremier League

Leading scorers: Krylia Sovetov and Zenit

Krylia Sovetov

GoalsAssists

  • A. Rahmanović50

Zenit

GoalsAssists

  • M. Glushenkov105
  • A. Sobolev102

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Zenit won 3–0 at Krylia Sovetov. The model had made a win for Zenit its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Aleksandr Sobolev (penalty) 26' for Zenit, Aleksandr Sobolev 67' for Zenit, Artem Karpukas 73' for Zenit. On expected goals it finished 0.60–2.31.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Krylia Sovetov a 13.1% chance to finish in the bottom four: 6.9% after a win, 12.1% after a draw, 15.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.8%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

For Zenit the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 43.0% going in: 49.1% after a win, 39.3% after a draw, 34.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.1%, 6.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Krylia Sovetov v Zenit has moved

First published on 19 Oct at 24% / 25% / 51% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 26% / 25% / 49%: the biggest move is Krylia Sovetov's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Krylia Sovetov win26%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%=
  3. Zenit win49%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.