2 November 2026, 13:45 UTC

Pakhtakor vs Al-Nassr AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result

Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium, Tashkent
Referee: Alexander King
Full time2 – 6

Final score: Pakhtakor 2-6 Al-Nassr.

Before kick-off the model made it 12% Pakhtakor, 18% draw, 70% Al-Nassr — fair odds of 8.33, 5.56 and 1.43.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Nassr at 70%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pakhtakor0%Draw1%Al-Nassr99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽Abdullah Al-Hamdanassist: Joao Felix
17'
⚽Joao Felix
•Akmal Mozgovoy
26'
32'
⚽Joao Felixassist: Sadio Mané
Mukhammad-Bobur Karimov
32'
⚽Flamarion Jovino Filhoassist: Sherzod Nasrullaev
36'
45'
🔁Ayman Yahyaout: Abdulrahman Ghareeb
53'
⚽Abdulelah Al-Amriassist: Joao Felix
Sherzod Nasrullaev
57'
🔁Sardor Sabirkhodjaevout: Ibrokhim Ibrokhimov
60'
🔁Bashar Resanout: Dostonbek Khamdamov
60'
62'
⚽Abdulrahman Ghareebassist: Sadio Mané
68'
🔁Joao Felixout: Abdullah Al-Khaibari
68'
🔁Nawaf Boushalout: Rakan Al Ghamdi
🔁Stephen Chineduout: Aymen Hussein
71'
🔁Abdurauf Burievout: Oybek Bozorov
71'
⚽Dostonbek Khamdamov
75'
76'
🔁Sadio Manéout: Sami Al-Najei
79'
⚽Angelo Borgesassist: Abdullah Al-Hamdan
87'
🔁Abdullah Al-Hamdanout: Abdulrahman Sufyani
🔁Flamarion Jovino Filhoout: Quvanishbek Saydaliyev
90+1'

Match stats — Pakhtakor vs Al-Nassr

50%Possession50%
16Shots14
5On target8
7Corners5
1.78xG2.33

Goals against chances

Pakhtakor2 from 1.78 xGabout what the chances were worth
Al-Nassr6 from 2.33 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Pakhtakor 4-2-3-1
  • 12V. NazarovG
  • 22Mukhammad-Bobur KarimovD
  • 55M. AbdumajidovD
  • 4Zayed TahseenD
  • 34S. NasrullayevD
  • 23Abdurauf Bo'riyevM
  • 27S. Sobirkho'jaevM
  • 50FlamarionM
  • 10A. MozgovoyM
  • 21B. ResanM
  • 90S. ChineduF
Substitutes
  • 20D. AbdullayevD
  • 77O. BozorovM
  • 29Aymen HusseinF
  • 9I. IbragimovM
  • 17D. KhamdamovM
  • 35S. KuvvatovG
  • 8D. SaitovM
  • 33Kuvanishbek SaydalievM
  • 18Abubakir ShukurullaevM
Coach: Kamoliddin Tadzhiev
Al-Nassr 4-4-1-1
  • 24BentoG
  • 12Nawaf BoushalD
  • 5Abdulelah Al AmriD
  • 26Íñigo MartínezD
  • 70Awad AmanD
  • 23Ayman YahyaM
  • 20ÂngeloM
  • 11Samú CostaM
  • 10S. ManéM
  • 79João FélixM
  • 9Abdullah Al HamdanF
Substitutes
  • 8Hayder AbdulkareemM
  • 94A. SufyaniF
  • 29Abdulrahman GhareebF
  • 6Saad Al NasserD
  • 14Sami Al NajiM
  • 83Salem Al NajdiD
  • 17Abdullah Al KhaibariM
  • 56R. Al GhamdiF
  • 22Abdulhadi Al AlwanG
Coach: A. Postecoglou

Form going into Pakhtakor vs Al-Nassr

Pakhtakor

AFC Champions League Elite

  • L0-1away to Al Quwa Al Jawiya26 October 2026
  • D1-1Al-Qadisiyah FC12 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Al-Ahli Jeddah14 September 2026

Al-Nassr

AFC Champions League Elite

  • W3-1Neftchi Fergana12 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Al Ain15 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Pakhtakor402249-52
7Al-Nassr320197+26

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Pakhtakor and Al-Nassr

Pakhtakor

No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Al-Nassr

GoalsAssists

  • João Félix22

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Nassr won 6–2 at Pakhtakor. The model had made a win for Al-Nassr its most likely outcome, at 70%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Abdullah Al-Hamdan 15' for Al-Nassr, Joao Felix 17' for Al-Nassr, Joao Felix 32' for Al-Nassr, Flamarion Jovino Filho 36' for Pakhtakor, Abdulelah Al-Amri 53' for Al-Nassr, Abdulrahman Ghareeb 62' for Al-Nassr, Dostonbek Khamdamov 75' for Pakhtakor, Angelo Borges 79' for Al-Nassr. On expected goals it finished 1.78–2.33.

How the call on Pakhtakor v Al-Nassr has moved

First published on 19 Oct at 15% / 21% / 64% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 12% / 18% / 70%: the biggest move is Al-Nassr's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Pakhtakor win12%▼ −3
  2. Draw18%▼ −3
  3. Al-Nassr win70%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.