2 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Miejski w Rzeszowie, Rzeszow
Referee: Wrzeszczynski Pawel
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Stal Rzeszów 2-2 Puszcza Niepołomice.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Stal Rzeszów, 27% draw, 33% Puszcza Niepołomice — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Stal Rzeszów at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stal Rzeszów0%Draw5%Puszcza Niepołomice95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽A. Piekarskiassist: O. Korczakowski
🔁S. Gossout: W. Brzek
35'
•M. Thiede
44'
🔁S. Salamonout: A. Buksa
46'
58'
🔁O. Korczakowskiout: K. Iwao
⚽A. Buksa (pen)
61'
M. Thiede
65'
67'
⚽A. Gjoni (pen)
🔁M. Rittmullerout: O. Madej
67'
78'
🔁A. Trubehaout: B. Kurzeja
78'
🔁M. Cholewiakout: W. Kaminski
78'
🔁O. Kocarout: K. Wolowiec
🔁M. Leniartout: A. Naifi
86'
90'
🔁F. Nascimentoout: I. Pieprzyca
90+1'
I. Pieprzyca
⚽V. Krasovskiyassist: A. Buksa
90+6'

Form going into Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice

Stal Rzeszów

I Liga

  • L1-2away to Podbeskidzie25 October 2026
  • W4-3away to Pogoń Siedlce18 October 2026
  • L1-2Lechia Gdansk12 October 2026

Puszcza Niepołomice

I Liga

  • W2-1Lechia Gdansk24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Nieciecza19 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Pogoń Siedlce15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Stal Rzeszów145361825-718
16Puszcza Niepołomice144281620-414

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice

  • 22 February 2026Puszcza Niepołomice 4–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga
  • 16 August 2025Stal Rzeszów 2–2 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
  • 31 October 2023Stal Rzeszów 1–0 Puszcza NiepołomiceCup
  • 11 February 2023Stal Rzeszów 1–0 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
  • 23 July 2022Puszcza Niepołomice 2–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga

The result against the call

Stal Rzeszów and Puszcza Niepołomice drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Stal Rzeszów at 40% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Piekarski 10' for Puszcza Niepołomice, A. Buksa (penalty) 61' for Stal Rzeszów, A. Gjoni (penalty) 67' for Puszcza Niepołomice, V. Krasovskiy 90+6' for Stal Rzeszów.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stal Rzeszów a 26.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.6% after a win, 28.1% after a draw, 32.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 28.1%, 2 points higher than before the match.

For Puszcza Niepołomice the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 27.5% going in: 19.6% after a win, 28.2% after a draw, 33.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 28.2%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.