KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: KVC Westerlo 4-4 SK Beveren.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% KVC Westerlo, 21% draw, 19% SK Beveren — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
KVC Westerlo at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99Andreas JungdalG
- 2Lasse FløD
- 5Seiji KimuraD
- 4Amando LapageD
- 28Dylan OuregaD
- 45Ibrahim FofanaM
- 14Cisse SandraM
- 11Naoufal Bohamdi-KamoniM
- 13Isa SakamotoM
- 7Shunsuke SaitoM
- 9Norman BassetteF
- 88Fabio FerraroD
- 40Botond BaloghD
- 47Yang Min-hyeokF
- 12Reda LaalaouiM
- 22Felix TsimbaF
- 1Bill LathouwersG
- 26Pape DiongM
- 39Thomas Van den KeybusM
- 17David AmegnagloF
- 1Johannes SchenkG
- 21Laurent JansD
- 3Viktor BooneD
- 31Bruno GodeauD
- 4Christophe JanssensD
- 24Arno VerschuerenM
- 18Sieben DewaeleM
- 44Cheick Oumar CondéM
- 22Christian BrülsF
- 9Moise KaboréF
- 17Jearl MargarithaF
- 5Chris LokesaF
- 33Victor OlatunjiF
- 8Ferre SlegersM
- 35Yoni GomisD
- 92Lennart MertensF
- 84Josua Lusamba TshiololaG
- 25Cheick Oumar KonatéD
- 2Dominic ThompsonD
- 48Jannik Thomas RobatschD
Form going into KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren
KVC Westerlo
Jupiler Pro League
- W5-1Antwerp11 October 2026
- W2-0away to St. Truiden20 September 2026
SK Beveren
Jupiler Pro League
- L1-3Lommel United9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Kortrijk20 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | KVC Westerlo | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | SK Beveren | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren
- 1 November 2023SK Beveren 3–1 KVC WesterloCup
- 23 March 2023SK Beveren 2–2 KVC WesterloFriendlies Clubs
- 25 February 2022KVC Westerlo 2–1 SK BeverenChallenger Pro League
- 30 January 2022SK Beveren 2–1 KVC WesterloChallenger Pro League
- 7 November 2021KVC Westerlo 1–1 SK BeverenChallenger Pro League
- 12 September 2021SK Beveren 0–2 KVC WesterloChallenger Pro League
Leading scorers: KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren
KVC Westerlo
GoalsAssists
- N. Bassette80
- S. Saito51
SK Beveren
GoalsAssists
- C. Lokesa50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren drew 4–4. The model had leaned towards a win for KVC Westerlo at 60% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Shunsuke Saito 10' for KVC Westerlo, Moise Kaboré 33' for SK Beveren, Norman Bassette 45+1' for KVC Westerlo, Norman Bassette (penalty) 55' for KVC Westerlo, Chris Lokesa 67' for SK Beveren, Victor Olatunji 88' for SK Beveren, Shunsuke Saito (penalty) 90+7' for KVC Westerlo, Victor Olatunji 90+12' for SK Beveren. Sent off: Reda Laalaoui (KVC Westerlo) 90+9'. On expected goals it finished 2.41–2.08.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave KVC Westerlo a 11.3% chance to finish in the top four: 12.6% after a win, 9.3% after a draw, 5.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.3%, 2 points lower than before the match.
For SK Beveren the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 22.1% going in: 13.1% after a win, 21.6% after a draw, 23.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 21.6%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on KVC Westerlo v SK Beveren has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 57% / 23% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 60% / 21% / 19%: the biggest move is KVC Westerlo's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- KVC Westerlo win60%▲ +3
- Draw21%▼ −2
- SK Beveren win19%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.