24 October 2026, 16:15 UTC

OH Leuven vs Lommel United Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Den Dreef, Heverlee
Referee: Jan Boterberg, Belgium
Full time2 – 2

Final score: OH Leuven 2-2 Lommel United.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% OH Leuven, 31% draw, 41% Lommel United — fair odds of 3.57, 3.23 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lommel United at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

OH Leuven96%Draw4%Lommel United0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

T. Ogiwara
12'
35'
⚽S. Appuahassist: D. Konadu
40'
S. Adewoye
45+2'
S. Appuah
🔁L. Lakomyout: E. Addai
46'
⚽R. Mirisolaassist: W. Balikwisha
65'
⚽E. Addaiassist: D. Opoku
67'
R. Mirisola
71'
73'
🔁J. Pelupessyout: T. Reyners
73'
🔁J. Tolinssonout: N. Rommens
🔁R. Mirisolaout: K. Vaesen
80'
🔁D. Opokuout: T. Vlietinck
80'
80'
🔁S. Adewoyeout: H. Oware
85'
🔁S. Appuahout: N. Corthouts
🔁T. Ogiwaraout: A. Fontanarosa
90+4'
90+6'
⚽J. van Duivenassist: S. Nypan

Match stats — OH Leuven vs Lommel United

43%Possession57%
22Shots13
6On target4
7Corners5
3.43xG0.97

Goals against chances

OH Leuven2 from 3.43 xGless than the chances were worth
Lommel United2 from 0.97 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

OH Leuven 3-4-3
  • 1Dani van den HeuvelG
  • 5Jamie LawrenceD
  • 28Ewoud PletinckxD
  • 34Roggerio NyakossiD
  • 99Davis OpokuM
  • 6Wouter GeorgeM
  • 8Siebe SchrijversM
  • 26Takuya OgiwaraM
  • 24Łukasz ŁakomyF
  • 18Robin MirisolaF
  • 21William BalikwishaF
Substitutes
  • 7Emmanuel AddaiF
  • 77Thibault VlietinckD
  • 17Kyan VaesenF
  • 30Alessandro FontanarosaD
  • 13Kiany VromanG
  • 72Sebastian MurruM
  • 48Bryang KayoM
  • 20Shin YamadaF
  • 19Chukwubuikem IkwuemesiF
Lommel United 4-2-3-1
  • 23Matthias PieklakG
  • 2Jason van DuivenD
  • 3Timothy EyomaD
  • 14Jesper TolinssonD
  • 4Shawn AdewoyeD
  • 6Joey PelupessyM
  • 41Sverre NypanM
  • 7Juho TalvitieM
  • 15Lucas SchoofsM
  • 11Stredair AppuahM
  • 9Don-Angelo KonaduF
Substitutes
  • 8Nicolas RommensM
  • 10Tom ReynersM
  • 34Henry OwareD
  • 46Niek CorthoutsF
  • 1Nikola IvezićG
  • 44Isaiah Dada-MascollM
  • 47Tristan GooijerD
  • 22Đorđe GordićM
  • 73Alexander ReumersF

Form going into OH Leuven vs Lommel United

OH Leuven

Jupiler Pro League

  • D1-1away to Union St. Gilloise11 October 2026
  • W2-0RAAL La Louvière19 September 2026

Lommel United

Jupiler Pro League

  • W3-1away to SK Beveren9 October 2026
  • D0-0KV Mechelen19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10OH Leuven113351217-512
6Lommel United114431513+216

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: OH Leuven vs Lommel United

  • 15 July 2026OH Leuven 5–1 Lommel UnitedFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 February 2020OH Leuven 3–0 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
  • 6 December 2019Lommel United 3–2 OH LeuvenChallenger Pro League
  • 20 October 2019Lommel United 0–2 OH LeuvenChallenger Pro League
  • 22 September 2019OH Leuven 1–0 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
  • 26 April 2019OH Leuven 1–0 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League

Leading scorers: OH Leuven and Lommel United

OH Leuven

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Lommel United

GoalsAssists

  • Don-Angelo Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

OH Leuven and Lommel United drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Lommel United at 41% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: S. Appuah 35' for Lommel United, R. Mirisola 65' for OH Leuven, E. Addai 67' for OH Leuven, J. van Duiven 90+6' for Lommel United. On expected goals it finished 3.43–0.97.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave OH Leuven a 18.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 12.8% after a win, 17.4% after a draw, 21.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.4%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.

For Lommel United the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 11.3% going in: 13.9% after a win, 9.1% after a draw, 7.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.1%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on OH Leuven v Lommel United has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 27% / 30% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 28% / 31% / 41%: the biggest move is Lommel United's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. OH Leuven win28%▲ +1
  2. Draw31%▲ +1
  3. Lommel United win41%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.