Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Club Brugge KV 3-2 St. Truiden.
Before kick-off the model made it 70% Club Brugge KV, 18% draw, 12% St. Truiden — fair odds of 1.43, 5.56 and 8.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Jupiler Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Club Brugge KV at 70%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Yann SommerG
- 64Kyriani SabbeD
- 58Jorne SpileersD
- 44Brandon MecheleD
- 65Joaquin SeysD
- 8Freddie PottsM
- 20Hans VanakenM
- 9Carlos ForbsM
- 10Hugo VetlesenM
- 11Jan VirgiliM
- 7Nicolò TresoldiF
- 67Mamadou DiakhonF
- 41Hugo SiquetD
- 80Félix LemaréchalM
- 17Romeo VermantF
- 32Matteo DamsD
- 81Argus Vanden DriesscheG
- 3Han-Beom LeeD
- 39Milan RobberechtsF
- 16Cheveyo TsawaM
- 16Léo KokuboG
- 3Taiga HataD
- 4Kota TakaiD
- 5Shogo TaniguchiD
- 23Joedrick PupeD
- 8Abdoulaye SissakoM
- 18Nelson IshiwatariM
- 11Nathanaël MbukuM
- 99Shion ShinkawaM
- 10Ilias SebaouiM
- 9Samed BaždarF
- 60Robert-Jan VanwesemaelD
- 19Frederic Soelle SoelleF
- 14Ryan MerlenM
- 38Kaito MatsuzawaF
- 7Arbnor MujaF
- 21Matt LendfersG
- 26Visar MusliuD
- 22Wolke JanssensD
- 71Ryotaro ArakiM
Form going into Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden
Club Brugge KV
Jupiler Pro League
- W4-1away to RAAL La Louvière10 October 2026
- W3-0Genk20 September 2026
St. Truiden
Jupiler Pro League
- L3-4away to KV Mechelen11 October 2026
- L0-2KVC Westerlo20 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 28 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden
Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden have met 7 times in the records we hold, Club Brugge KV has won 5 of them to St. Truiden's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Club Brugge KV won the last one 3–2 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 8 |
| St. Truiden | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 28 goals, an average of 4.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Jupiler Pro LeagueClub Brugge KV 3–2 St. Truiden - 9 May 2026
Jupiler Pro LeagueClub Brugge KV 2–0 St. Truiden - 11 Apr 2026
Jupiler Pro LeagueSt. Truiden 1–2 Club Brugge KV - 6 Dec 2025
Jupiler Pro LeagueSt. Truiden 3–2 Club Brugge KV - 21 Sep 2025
Jupiler Pro LeagueClub Brugge KV 2–0 St. Truiden - 15 Feb 2025
Jupiler Pro LeagueSt. Truiden 2–2 Club Brugge KV - 23 Nov 2024
Jupiler Pro LeagueClub Brugge KV 7–0 St. Truiden
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Club Brugge KV's attack rates 46% above St. Truiden's, and Club Brugge KV concede 32% fewer than St. Truiden. That gives Club Brugge KV the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | 1.52 | 0.77 |
| St. Truiden | 1.04 | 1.13 |
Leading scorers: Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden
Club Brugge KV
GoalsAssists
- N. Tresoldi81
- H. Vetlesen51
St. Truiden
GoalsAssists
- S. Baždar50
- I. Sebaoui43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Club Brugge KV beat St. Truiden 3–2. The model had made a win for Club Brugge KV its most likely outcome, at 70%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: N. Tresoldi 41' for Club Brugge KV, N. Tresoldi 43' for Club Brugge KV, I. Sebaoui (penalty) 55' for St. Truiden, N. Tresoldi 75' for Club Brugge KV, S. Taniguchi 90+3' for St. Truiden. Sent off: R. Vanwesemael (St. Truiden) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 2.67–1.81.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Club Brugge KV a 62.3% chance to finish top of the regular season: 65.0% after a win, 53.8% after a draw, 51.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 65.0%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.
For St. Truiden the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 5.5% going in: 8.8% after a win, 6.1% after a draw, 4.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.8%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Club Brugge KV v St. Truiden has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 67% / 19% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 70% / 18% / 12%: the biggest move is Club Brugge KV's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Club Brugge KV win70%▲ +3
- Draw18%▼ −1
- St. Truiden win12%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.