24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 Czech Liga prediction & result

Brno
Referee: Marek Radina
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Zbrojovka Brno 2-2 Bohemians 1905.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Zbrojovka Brno, 31% draw, 30% Bohemians 1905 — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zbrojovka Brno at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zbrojovka Brno3%Draw94%Bohemians 19053%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Amadou Danteassist: Tadeáš Vachoušek
2'
9'
Matěj Kadlec
45'
🔁Jan Matoušekout: Václav Pilař
45'
🔁Matěj Kadlecout: Jan Kovařík
48'
⚽Aleš Čermák
🔁Martin Rymarenkoout: Antonín Vaníček
64'
🔁Petr Ševčíkout: Jakub Janetzky
64'
66'
🔁Ladislav Almásiout: Ladislav Krobot
⚽Lukáš Penxaassist: Štěpán Langer
74'
🔁Daniel Vasulinout: Lucky Ezeh
75'
81'
🔁Vojtech Smrzout: Samuel Obinaya
🔁Tadeáš Vachoušekout: Jaromír Zmrhal
81'
🔁Štěpán Langerout: Patrik Cavos
81'
82'
⚽Roman Kvetassist: Václav Pilař
90+2'
🔁Aleš Čermákout: David Heidenreich

Match stats — Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905

44%Possession56%
13Shots15
5On target3
9Corners5
0.98xG1.63

Goals against chances

Zbrojovka Brno2 from 0.98 xGmore than the chances were worth
Bohemians 19052 from 1.63 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Zbrojovka Brno 3-4-3
  • 1A. HrdinaG
  • 39J. KlímaD
  • 26F. VedralD
  • 38J. PokornýD
  • 6Lukáš PenxaM
  • 23P. ŠevčíkM
  • 7Š. LangerM
  • 44A. DantéM
  • 14T. VachoušekF
  • 15D. VašulínF
  • 11M. RymarenkoF
Substitutes
  • 8P. ČavošM
  • 77L. EzehF
  • 4E. HunálD
  • 68J. JanetzkýM
  • 25T. BřečkaD
  • 3Kauan Carneiro KakaD
  • 19B. KanakimanaF
  • 78O. ProdelalG
  • 79S. AfolabiM
Coach: M. Svědík
Bohemians 1905 3-4-1-2
  • 23T. FrühwaldG
  • 24M. HavelD
  • 27D. LischkaD
  • 3Matej KadlecD
  • 32P. MirvaldM
  • 47A. ČermákM
  • 42V. SmržM
  • 37D. JavorčekM
  • 16R. KvětM
  • 99L. AlmásiF
  • 10J. MatoušekF
Substitutes
  • 70Simon CernyM
  • 8D. HeidenreichD
  • 25P. KareemD
  • 19J. KovaříkM
  • 9L. KrobotF
  • 62Samuel ObinayaM
  • 11V. PilařM
  • 12M. ReichlG
  • 6B. SakalaM
Coach: J. Veselý

Form going into Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905

Zbrojovka Brno

Czech Liga

  • W2-1away to Slovácko18 October 2026
  • L0-1FK Jablonec10 October 2026

Bohemians 1905

Czech Liga

  • W1-0Mlada Boleslav14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Zbrojovka Brno146261722-520
9Bohemians 1905145541515020

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905

  • 25 February 2023Bohemians 1905 1–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
  • 4 September 2022Zbrojovka Brno 1–2 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
  • 6 February 2021Bohemians 1905 2–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
  • 30 August 2020Zbrojovka Brno 0–0 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga

Leading scorers: Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905

Zbrojovka Brno

GoalsAssists

  • D. Vašulín50

Bohemians 1905

GoalsAssists

  • A. Čermák52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Zbrojovka Brno at 39% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Amadou Dante 2' for Zbrojovka Brno, Aleš Čermák 48' for Bohemians 1905, Lukáš Penxa 74' for Zbrojovka Brno, Roman Kvet 82' for Bohemians 1905. On expected goals it finished 0.98–1.63.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zbrojovka Brno a 81.0% chance to finish in the top ten: 87.4% after a win, 80.7% after a draw, 74.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 80.7%.

For Bohemians 1905 the question was the chance to finish in the top ten, 69.2% going in: 77.6% after a win, 69.7% after a draw, 63.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 69.7%, 0.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Zbrojovka Brno v Bohemians 1905 has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 39% / 31% / 30%: the biggest move is Zbrojovka Brno's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Zbrojovka Brno win39%▼ −3
  2. Draw31%▲ +1
  3. Bohemians 1905 win30%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.