24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Antwerp vs Charleroi Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Bosuilstadion
Referee: Wim Smet, Belgium
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Antwerp 3-0 Charleroi.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Antwerp, 27% draw, 44% Charleroi — fair odds of 3.45, 3.70 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Charleroi at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Antwerp99%Draw1%Charleroi0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽T. Somersassist: S. Renders
8'
11'
A. Ousou
⚽S. Porozo (pen)
27'
C. Mejia
30'
⚽R. Van Heldenassist: I. Salah
47'
57'
🔁F. Mbembaout: G. Nawata
57'
🔁A. Boukamirout: I. Cisse
🔁S. Porozoout: M. Frey
60'
🔁B. Deuffout: C. Scott
60'
🔁C. Mejiaout: M. Fofana
66'
70'
🔁K. Van Den Kerkhofout: T. Rowe
70'
🔁Y. Khalifiout: A. Bojang
77'
🔁P. Pfluckeout: A. Colassin
🔁S. Rendersout: M. Busi
79'
🔁I. Salahout: X. Dierckx
79'
80'
M. Nzita
85'
G. Nawata
C. Scott
87'
A. Vermeeren
88'

Match stats — Antwerp vs Charleroi

44%Possession56%
7Shots20
4On target7
5Corners5
1.45xG1.97

Goals against chances

Antwerp3 from 1.45 xGmore than the chances were worth
Charleroi0 from 1.97 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Antwerp 4-2-3-1
  • 41Taishi Brandon NozawaG
  • 17Semm RendersD
  • 20Rein Van HeldenD
  • 3Álvaro CortésD
  • 5Daam FoulonD
  • 6Bahmed DeuffM
  • 48Arthur VermeerenM
  • 80Carlos MejiaM
  • 24Thibo SomersM
  • 7Ibrahim SalahM
  • 33Snayder PorozoF
Substitutes
  • 10Christopher ScottM
  • 9Michael FreyF
  • 25Modibo FofanaM
  • 44Maxime BusiD
  • 14Xander DierckxM
  • 81Niels DevalckeneerG
  • 4Yuto TsunashimaM
  • 28Luca SchelfhoutD
  • 43Youssef HamdaouiM
Charleroi 4-2-3-1
  • 30Mohamed KonéG
  • 3Kevin Van Den KerkhofD
  • 4Aiham OusouD
  • 95Cheick KeitaD
  • 24Mardochee NzitaD
  • 6Amine BoukamirM
  • 18Yassine KhalifiM
  • 14Patrick PflückeM
  • 8Jakob Napoleon RomsaasM
  • 20Freddy MbembaM
  • 21Aurélien ScheidlerF
Substitutes
  • 13Gaku NawataM
  • 19Isaac Ismaël CisséM
  • 2Triston RoweD
  • 9Adama BojangF
  • 25Antoine ColassinF
  • 1Martin DelavalléeG
  • 33Noah SolheidD
  • 65Mory KeraM
  • 23Boubakar DembagaM

Form going into Antwerp vs Charleroi

Antwerp

Jupiler Pro League

  • L1-5away to KVC Westerlo11 October 2026
  • L0-2Union St. Gilloise20 September 2026

Charleroi

Jupiler Pro League

  • W1-0away to Standard Liege11 October 2026
  • W3-2Cercle Brugge19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Antwerp113261824-611
4Charleroi119022613+1327

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Antwerp vs Charleroi

  • 10 May 2026Antwerp 0–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 10 April 2026Charleroi 2–1 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
  • 25 January 2026Antwerp 0–2 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 17 August 2025Charleroi 1–1 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
  • 29 May 2025Antwerp 1–2 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 8 December 2024Antwerp 1–3 CharleroiJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Antwerp and Charleroi

Antwerp

GoalsAssists

  • M. Frey40
  • S. Porozo40

Charleroi

GoalsAssists

  • A. Scheidler62
  • F. Situmona Mbemba53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Antwerp beat Charleroi 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Charleroi at 44% and given a win for Antwerp 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: T. Somers 8' for Antwerp, S. Porozo (penalty) 27' for Antwerp, R. Van Helden 47' for Antwerp. On expected goals it finished 1.45–1.97.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Antwerp a 10.6% chance to finish in the bottom two: 6.5% after a win, 10.7% after a draw, 12.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.5%, 4.1 points lower than before the match.

For Charleroi the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 53.9% going in: 59.1% after a win, 51.4% after a draw, 47.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.4%, 6.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Antwerp v Charleroi has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 32% / 28% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 29% / 27% / 44%: the biggest move is Charleroi's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Antwerp win29%▼ −3
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Charleroi win44%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.