KVC Westerlo vs Union St. Gilloise Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: KVC Westerlo 1-5 Union St. Gilloise.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% KVC Westerlo, 24% draw, 38% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts KVC Westerlo at 38% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — KVC Westerlo vs Union St. Gilloise
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99A. JungdalG
- 24M. NdembiD
- 5S. KimuraD
- 4A. LapageD
- 2L. FloM
- 45I. FofanaM
- 14C. SandraM
- 28D. OuregaM
- 13I. SakamotoF
- 7S. SaitoF
- 9N. BassetteF
- 1B. LathouwersG
- 8S. SydorchukM
- 39T. Van den KeybusM
- 23L. Mbamba-MuandaD
- 18K. BorysM
- 12R. LaalaouiM
- 10A. PatraoF
- 17D. Jochem
- 11N. Bohamdi-Kamoni
- 1V. ChambaereG
- 5K. Mac AllisterD
- 29M. SyllaD
- 48F. LeysenD
- 27L. PatrisM
- 6K. Van De PerreM
- 23B. ZeneliM
- 22O. NiangM
- 17R. SchoofsF
- 30R. FloruczF
- 12P. DavidF
- 99H. KoffiG
- 55N. HavenaarD
- 80O. KricfalusiD
- 7M. FuseiniF
- 28D. OlaruM
- 14I. PavlicM
- 9M. Biondic
- 38R. MofokengF
- 11Guilherme SmithM
Form going into KVC Westerlo vs Union St. Gilloise
KVC Westerlo
No earlier matches on record this season.
Union St. Gilloise
- D3-3Bodo/Glimt4 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | KVC Westerlo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 7 |
| 1 | Union St. Gilloise | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: KVC Westerlo vs Union St. Gilloise
- 8 August 2026KVC Westerlo 1–5 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 1 March 2026KVC Westerlo 0–0 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 27 September 2025Union St. Gilloise 2–0 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 15 December 2024Union St. Gilloise 3–1 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 10 August 2024KVC Westerlo 4–3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 10 February 2024Union St. Gilloise 2–2 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: KVC Westerlo and Union St. Gilloise
KVC Westerlo
- S. Saito3 goals
- N. Bassette3 goals
Union St. Gilloise
- R. Florucz4 goals
- R. Mofokeng3 goals
- B. Zeneli2 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.