8 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

St. Truiden vs Lommel United Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Daio Wasabi Stayen, Sint-Truiden
Full time1 – 1

Final score: St. Truiden 1-1 Lommel United.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% St. Truiden, 25% draw, 35% Lommel United — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts St. Truiden at 40% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St. Truiden4%Draw92%Lommel United4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
•Timothy Eyoma
24'
⚽R. Seuntjens (pen)
•Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
36'
49'
🔁S. Nypanout: J. Talvitie
56'
🔁S. Appuahout: Z. Vancsa
⚽I. Sebaouiassist: N. Ishiwatari
64'
🔁R. Merlenout: K. Matsuzawa
68'
73'
🔁H. Owareout: S. Adewoye
73'
🔁R. Seuntjensout: L. Beirinckx
Nelson Ishiwatari
75'
🔁F. Soelleout: O. Diouf
76'
🔁J. Pupeout: S. Shinkawa
89'
•Oumar Diouf
90'

Match stats — St. Truiden vs Lommel United

66%Possession34%
32Shots9
4On target2
6Corners2
1.91xG1.49

Goals against chances

St. Truiden1 from 1.91 xGless than the chances were worth
Lommel United1 from 1.49 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St. Truiden
  • 16L. KokuboG
  • 3T. HataD
  • 4L. Mbe SohD
  • 26V. MusliuD
  • 23J. PupeD
  • 18N. IshiwatariM
  • 8A. SissakoM
  • 60R. VanwesemaelM
  • 14R. MerlenM
  • 10I. SebaouiM
  • 19F. Soelle
Substitutes
  • 21M. LendfersG
  • 22W. JanssensD
  • 33A. DirikenM
  • 99S. ShinkawaM
  • 5S. TaniguchiD
  • 71R. ArakiM
  • 77O. Diouf
  • 38K. MatsuzawaF
  • 39R. Verheyden
Lommel United 4-2-3-1
  • 23M. PieklakG
  • 2J. van DuivenD
  • 3T. EyomaD
  • 5D. WoutersD
  • 34H. OwareD
  • 15L. SchoofsM
  • 6J. PelupessyM
  • 10T. ReynersM
  • 41S. NypanM
  • 21S. AppuahM
  • 30R. SeuntjensF
Substitutes
  • 1N. IvezicG
  • 8N. RommensM
  • 4S. AdewoyeD
  • 11Z. VancsaM
  • 22D. GordicM
  • 44I. Dada-MascollM
  • 7J. TalvitieF
  • 98M. SalahF
  • 60L. BeirinckxD
Coach: Lee Johnson

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10St. Truiden62221210+28
12Lommel United621368-27

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St. Truiden vs Lommel United

  • 8 August 2026St. Truiden 1–1 Lommel UnitedJupiler Pro League
  • 17 August 2020St. Truiden 1–1 Lommel UnitedFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: St. Truiden and Lommel United

St. Truiden

  • S. Baždar4 goals
  • R. Merlen3 goals3 assists

Lommel United

  • T. Reyners3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.