31 October 2026, 13:45 UTC

Rouen vs Concarneau Ligue 3 prediction & result

Stade Robert Diochon, Rouen
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Rouen 2-1 Concarneau.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Rouen, 26% draw, 22% Concarneau — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rouen at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rouen97%Draw3%Concarneau0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

C. Bassin
9'
⚽M. Tchokounteassist: I. Karamoko
14'
18'
🔁L. Rosierout: A. Sidibe
⚽I. Karamoko (pen)
31'
34'
⚽T. Sinquin
38'
F. Da Silva
45+4'
L. Goujon
🔁N. Mbembaout: B. Camara
65'
🔁J. Vianaout: I. Samoura
66'
71'
🔁M. Picouleauout: J. Varvat
71'
🔁B. Etcheverriaout: K. Benabdelouahed
73'
J. Halby
M. Tchokounte
79'
80'
🔁T. Sinquinout: O. Daf
80'
🔁L. Goujonout: G. Gbelle
I. Karamoko
80'
🔁I. Karamokoout: S. Traore
83'
🔁M. Tchokounteout: W. Pacius
83'

Line-ups

Rouen
  • 1A. Maraval
  • 25S. Diaby
  • 22F. Mendy
  • 18C. Bassin
  • 3M. Borne
  • 12A. Toure
  • 6N. Mbemba
  • 29J. Viana
  • 11N. Sommer
  • 10I. Karamoko
  • 9M. Tchokounte
Substitutes
  • 30D. Desprez
  • 5J. Gaspar
  • 13B. Camara
  • 8G. Egny
  • 17I. Samoura
  • 28W. Pacius
  • 21S. Traore
Coach: Regis Brouard
Concarneau
  • 1V. Viot
  • 27J. Halby
  • 6D. Seba
  • 24C. Divialle
  • 5B. Etcheverria
  • 26T. Sinquin
  • 18F. Da Silva
  • 23L. Goujon
  • 8M. Picouleau
  • 14L. Rosier
  • 9S. Janno
Substitutes
  • 40P. Patron
  • 2K. Benabdelouahed
  • 10G. Gbelle
  • 28G. Hocquet
  • 7J. Varvat
  • 19O. Daf
  • 17A. Sidibe
Coach: Stephane Moulin

Form going into Rouen vs Concarneau

Rouen

Ligue 3

  • L1-3away to Gobelins17 October 2026
  • W2-0Bourg-en-bresse 013 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Caen24 September 2026

Concarneau

Ligue 3

  • D1-1Bastia17 October 2026
  • W2-1Gobelins3 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Bourg-en-bresse 0126 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Rouen12822229+1326
6Concarneau125521611+520

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rouen vs Concarneau

  • 17 April 2026Concarneau 0–0 RouenLigue 3
  • 21 November 2025Rouen 0–0 ConcarneauLigue 3
  • 28 February 2025Rouen 4–3 ConcarneauLigue 3
  • 27 September 2024Concarneau 1–1 RouenLigue 3

The result against the call

Rouen beat Concarneau 2–1. The model had made a win for Rouen its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: M. Tchokounte 14' for Rouen, I. Karamoko (penalty) 31' for Rouen, T. Sinquin 34' for Concarneau.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rouen a 77.0% chance to finish in the top six: 80.7% after a win, 74.4% after a draw, 69.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.7%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

For Concarneau the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 22.1% going in: 30.7% after a win, 22.3% after a draw, 18.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.6%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.