31 October 2026, 13:45 UTC

Orleans vs Villefranche Ligue 3 prediction & result

Stade de la Source
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Orleans 1-1 Villefranche.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Orleans, 23% draw, 21% Villefranche — fair odds of 1.79, 4.35 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Orleans at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Orleans0%Draw6%Villefranche94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

M. Diako
33'
42'
J. Ngouabi Lougagui
50'
R. Laspalles
M. Guiheneuf
54'
57'
⚽A. Diakite (pen)
🔁M. Prunierout: A. Ribeiro
58'
67'
🔁G. Fofanaout: M. Etuin
73'
🔁A. Diakiteout: N. Sabihi
73'
🔁M. Louzifout: Y. Tade
🔁G. Khousout: S. Noireau-Dauriat
74'
🔁M. Guiheneufout: H. Aubourg
74'
77'
M. Cachbach
🔁M. Diakoout: Y. Aouladzian
85'
🔁T. Ndicka Matamout: J. Obiang
85'
86'
🔁S. Bakariout: K. Nagera
86'
🔁M. Cachbachout: D. Gassama
⚽H. Aubourgassist: R. Legendre
90+1'

Line-ups

Orleans
  • 1F. Faham
  • 23J. Koembo
  • 27M. Lemaitre
  • 5M. Sylla
  • 3T. Ndicka Matam
  • 12M. Guiheneuf
  • 7M. Diako
  • 10G. Khous
  • 20B. Dali-Amar
  • 9M. Prunier
  • 19R. Legendre
Substitutes
  • 40S. Moussima
  • 29J. Obiang
  • 32C. Ngambi Bikoi
  • 14Y. Aouladzian
  • 6H. Aubourg
  • 26A. Ribeiro
  • 18S. Noireau-Dauriat
Coach: Herve Della Maggiore
Villefranche
  • 1S. Pean
  • 18R. Laspalles
  • 4M. Tshibuabua
  • 2J. Ngouabi Lougagui
  • 28S. Bakari
  • 29L. Etoga
  • 6G. Fofana
  • 7M. Louzif
  • 13M. Cachbach
  • 27A. Diakite
  • 9L. Piquionne
Substitutes
  • 16T. Wilzius
  • 8M. Etuin
  • 23D. Gassama
  • 19K. Nagera
  • 21Y. Tade
  • 14J. Tiehi
  • 26N. Sabihi
Coach: Fabien Pujo

Form going into Orleans vs Villefranche

Orleans

Ligue 3

  • L2-3away to Quevilly17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Bastia1 October 2026
  • D0-0Cannes26 September 2026

Villefranche

Ligue 3

  • W2-1Cannes17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Amiens3 October 2026
  • L1-2Versailles26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Orleans122551217-511
16Villefranche122281026-168

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Orleans vs Villefranche

  • 27 March 2026Orleans 0–0 VillefrancheLigue 3
  • 21 October 2025Villefranche 1–2 OrleansLigue 3
  • 21 February 2025Villefranche 2–0 OrleansLigue 3
  • 20 September 2024Orleans 1–1 VillefrancheLigue 3
  • 8 March 2024Orleans 2–0 VillefrancheLigue 3
  • 29 September 2023Villefranche 3–0 OrleansLigue 3

The result against the call

Orleans and Villefranche drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Orleans at 56% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Diakite (penalty) 57' for Villefranche, H. Aubourg 90+1' for Orleans.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Orleans a 11.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.1% after a win, 14.2% after a draw, 16.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 14.2%, 3 points higher than before the match.

For Villefranche the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 67.4% going in: 57.6% after a win, 66.9% after a draw, 70.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 66.9%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Orleans v Villefranche has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 58% / 23% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 56% / 23% / 21%: the biggest move is Orleans's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Orleans win56%▼ −2
  2. Draw23%=
  3. Villefranche win21%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.