8 November 2026, 16:15 UTC

Le Havre vs Lorient Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Océane, Le Havre
Referee: Aurelien Petit
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Le Havre 0-2 Lorient.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Le Havre, 30% draw, 38% Lorient — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lorient at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Le Havre0%Draw3%Lorient97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
⚽Isaak Touréassist: Arsène Kouassi
🔁Mbwana Ally Samattaout: Amir Richardson
45'
•Josh Maja
59'
66'
🔁Aiyegun Tosinout: Mamadou Kone
66'
🔁Gabin Bernardeauout: Souleymane Faye
67'
Souleymane Faye
72'
🔁Isaak Touréout: Nosa Edward Obaretin
🔁Kaito Mizutaout: Ismail Bouneb
74'
🔁Enzo Koffiout: Lamine N'Diaye
80'
🔁Rayan Fofanaout: Hakim Dongopandji
84'
🔁Junior Mwangaout: Daren Mosengo
84'
85'
Noah Cadiou
90+5'
⚽Jean-Victor Makengoassist: Mamadou Kone
Ahmed Touba
90+6'
90+6'
Jean-Victor Makengo

Match stats — Le Havre vs Lorient

54%Possession46%
21Shots7
5On target3
5Corners0
0.99xG1.67

Goals against chances

Le Havre0 from 0.99 xGless than the chances were worth
Lorient2 from 1.67 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Le Havre 3-4-2-1
  • 16A. BodartG
  • 23V. SassoD
  • 5A. ToubaD
  • 27E. Koffi VinetteD
  • 20D. OuziadM
  • 26S. EbonogM
  • 6J. MwangaM
  • 25M. SamattaM
  • 38R. FofanaM
  • 17K. MizutaM
  • 9J. MajaF
Substitutes
  • 21M. BodmerM
  • 44I. BounebM
  • 33Hakim DongopandjiF
  • 93G. GallonG
  • 78D. MosengoM
  • 97Lamine N'DiayeD
  • 7A. RichardsonM
  • 34Thomas RousseauM
  • 24G. ZohouriM
Coach: Jair Karam
Lorient 3-4-2-1
  • 38Y. MvogoG
  • 32N. AdjeiD
  • 3M. TalbiD
  • 95S. TouréD
  • 20D. SyllaM
  • 8N. CadiouM
  • 62A. AvomM
  • 43K. KouassiM
  • 17J. MakengoM
  • 33G. BernardeauM
  • 15A. TosinF
Substitutes
  • 55N. ObaretinD
  • 72N. MbambaM
  • 11T. Le BrisM
  • 30S. KuzmićD
  • 42M. KoneF
  • 21B. KamaraG
  • 2A. GeorgenD
  • 19S. FayeF
  • 10I. JensenF
Coach: A. Dujeux

Form going into Le Havre vs Lorient

Le Havre

Ligue 1

  • L1-5Paris Saint Germain30 October 2026
  • L3-4away to Marseille25 October 2026
  • L1-3Auxerre18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Lille10 October 2026

Lorient

Ligue 1

  • L0-2Stade Brestois 292 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Angers25 October 2026
  • W1-0Monaco18 October 2026
  • W1-0Paris FC10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Le Havre did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Le Havre conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Le Havre scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Lorient had two goals or fewer.
  • Lorient kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Le Havre10028922-132
10Lorient1043398+115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Le Havre vs Lorient

  • 17 May 2026Lorient 0–2 Le HavreLigue 1
  • 21 September 2025Le Havre 1–1 LorientLigue 1
  • 28 January 2024Lorient 3–3 Le HavreLigue 1
  • 3 September 2023Le Havre 3–0 LorientLigue 1
  • 29 July 2023Le Havre 0–2 LorientFriendlies Clubs
  • 29 July 2023Lorient 2–0 Le HavreFriendlies Clubs

The full Le Havre vs Lorient record →

Leading scorers: Le Havre and Lorient

Le Havre

GoalsAssists

  • J. Maja40

Lorient

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lorient won 2–0 at Le Havre. The model had made a win for Lorient its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Isaak Touré 18' for Lorient, Jean-Victor Makengo 90+5' for Lorient. On expected goals it finished 0.99–1.67.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Le Havre a 56.2% chance to finish in the bottom two: 48.8% after a win, 56.8% after a draw, 61.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.3%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Le Havre v Lorient has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 30% / 31% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 32% / 30% / 38%: the biggest move is Le Havre's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Le Havre win32%▲ +2
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. Lorient win38%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.