Le Mans vs Monaco Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Le Mans 1-1 Monaco.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Le Mans, 24% draw, 51% Monaco — fair odds of 4.00, 4.17 and 1.96.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Monaco at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Le Mans vs Monaco
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 98N. KocikG
- 26R. BambaD
- 17S. YohouD
- 5H. VoyerD
- 29L. BretelleM
- 18L. BuadésM
- 23D. TraoréM
- 10J. VercruysseM
- 22L. CalodatM
- 14L. MafoutaF
- 25D. GuèyeF
- 16Raúl TorrenteD
- 15N. BoisséD
- 28E. ColasF
- 20W. HarhouzF
- 1E. HatfoutG
- 76Y. LarouciD
- 8A. LaurayM
- 9A. RabillardF
- 37Adnane KharroubiF
- 1L. HrádeckýG
- 2VandersonD
- 72Sadibou SanéD
- 15E. DierD
- 20Flávio NazinhoD
- 6D. ZakariaM
- 8L. CamaraM
- 28M. CoulibalyM
- 10A. GolovinM
- 7M. DetourbetM
- 11M. AblineF
- 9F. BalogunF
- 29Paris Josua BrunnerF
- 19Pape CabralM
- 37E. DiopM
- 16P. KöhnG
- 13C. Mawissa ElebiD
- 18T. MinaminoM
- 4J. TezeD
- 49I. TouréM
Form going into Le Mans vs Monaco
Le Mans
Ligue 1
- L0-2away to Estac Troyes31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Auxerre25 October 2026
- L0-3Toulouse16 October 2026
- L1-3away to Paris Saint Germain10 October 2026
Monaco
Ligue 1
- L1-3away to Paris FC1 November 2026
- D1-1Lille25 October 2026
- L0-1away to Lorient18 October 2026
- D2-2Toulouse10 October 2026
What these results say
- Le Mans did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Le Mans conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Monaco did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Monaco conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Monaco scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Le Mans | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 8 |
| 7 | Monaco | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Mans vs Monaco
- 17 May 2013Monaco 2–1 Le MansLigue 2
- 22 December 2012Le Mans 2–3 MonacoLigue 2
- 30 March 2012Le Mans 0–1 MonacoLigue 2
- 5 November 2011Monaco 2–2 Le MansLigue 2
Leading scorers: Le Mans and Monaco
Le Mans
GoalsAssists
- L. Mafouta41
- A. Bourabaa32
Monaco
GoalsAssists
- Paris Josua Brunner40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Le Mans and Monaco drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Monaco at 51% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Mamadou Coulibaly 40' for Monaco, Erwan Colas 90' for Le Mans. On expected goals it finished 1.56–0.83.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Le Mans a 35.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 26.7% after a win, 33.9% after a draw, 38.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 33.9%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.
For Monaco the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 26.9% going in: 30.2% after a win, 24.7% after a draw, 19.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 24.7%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.