Versailles vs Aubagne Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Versailles 4-0 Aubagne.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Versailles, 23% draw, 18% Aubagne — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Versailles at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 30N. Yavorsky
- 5R. Calvet
- 19B. Cisse
- 25D. Adehoumi
- 2J. Santini
- 14R. Basque
- 18J. Leborgne
- 6E. Goumot
- 28K. Rocha Santos
- 21S. Cara
- 7S. Guillaume
- 1R. Adelaide
- 3D. Khouma
- 24A. Ouchen
- 11A. Zakharyan
- 9C. Odzoumo
- 17A. Kabamba
- 10J. Kalai
- 1I. Toure
- 28I. Diakite
- 4R. Valme
- 5R. Doucoure
- 20A. Bellebrahim
- 23Y. Aradj
- 27J. Sahraoui
- 6A. Tafni
- 7Y. M'Changama
- 9Y. Zemoura
- 17J. Porsan Clemente
- 16T. Moreira
- 2A. Sadi
- 19B. Doukansy
- 18A. Oudjani
- 22W. Bouaziz
- 10K. Cisse
- 11B. Tafni
Form going into Versailles vs Aubagne
Versailles
Ligue 3
- W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos17 October 2026
- W1-0Valenciennes3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Villefranche26 September 2026
Aubagne
Ligue 3
- L0-1Le Puy Foot17 October 2026
- L1-3away to La Roche VF3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Fleury 9126 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Versailles | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 22 |
| 17 | Aubagne | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Versailles vs Aubagne
- 27 February 2026Versailles 3–0 AubagneLigue 3
- 19 September 2025Aubagne 1–1 VersaillesLigue 3
- 8 February 2025Versailles 2–0 AubagneLigue 3
- 6 September 2024Aubagne 3–3 VersaillesLigue 3
The result against the call
Versailles beat Aubagne 4–0. The model had made a win for Versailles its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: R. Basque (penalty) 16' for Versailles, S. Guillaume 43' for Versailles, E. Goumot 82' for Versailles, A. Kabamba 90+2' for Versailles.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Versailles a 67.3% chance to finish in the top six: 70.3% after a win, 63.1% after a draw, 58.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 70.3%, 3 points higher than before the match.
For Aubagne the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 60.5% going in: 52.2% after a win, 57.3% after a draw, 63.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.6%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.