22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus
Referee: Espen Eskas
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Sparta Praha.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Olympiakos Piraeus, 30% draw, 28% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Olympiakos Piraeus at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Olympiakos Piraeus97%Draw3%Sparta Praha0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
Jaroslav Zelený
38'
Roman Macek
45'
🔁Hugo Sochurekout: Sivert Heggheim Mannsverk
60'
🔁Matyáš Vojtaout: Jonatan Braut Brunes
🔁Roman Yaremchukout: Armando González
62'
🔁Santiago Hezzeout: Gustavo Puerta
62'
67'
🔁Matej Jurasekout: Ebrima Singhateh
67'
🔁Roman Macekout: Patrik Vydra
🔁Manolis Saliakasout: Marcus Pedersen
74'
🔁Bruno Onyemaechiout: Nayair Tiknizyan
74'
77'
Ebrima Singhateh
⚽Armando Gonzálezassist: Marcus Pedersen
78'
79'
🔁Ki-Jana Hoeverout: Pavel Kadeřábek
80'
Martin Suchomel
🔁Chiquinhoout: Gustavo Sá
83'
Jota Silva
83'
Gelson Martins
90+2'

Match stats — Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha

60%Possession40%
23Shots14
3On target1
14Corners3
2.24xG0.73

Goals against chances

Olympiakos Piraeus1 from 2.24 xGless than the chances were worth
Sparta Praha0 from 0.73 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Olympiakos Piraeus 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. OrtegaG
  • 2M. SaliakasD
  • 45P. RetsosD
  • 5L. PirolaD
  • 70S. OnyemaechiD
  • 19R. FreulerM
  • 32S. HezzeM
  • 20Jota SilvaM
  • 22ChiquinhoM
  • 10Gelson MartinsM
  • 11R. YaremchukF
Substitutes
  • 6David CarmoD
  • 92I. GeorgakopoulosG
  • 34A. GonzálezF
  • 27M. PedersenD
  • 15G. PuertaM
  • 8Gustavo SáM
  • 4Z. SmajlovićD
  • 71N. TiknizyanD
  • 89P. ToufakisM
Coach: Imanol Alguacil
Sparta Praha 4-3-3
  • 44J. SurovčíkG
  • 25K. HoeverD
  • 6T. GuddalD
  • 30J. ZelenýD
  • 2M. SuchomelD
  • 38H. SochurekM
  • 28R. MacekM
  • 5Santiago EnemeM
  • 31M. JurásekF
  • 29M. VojtaF
  • 7J. AlcócerF
Substitutes
  • 18A. IrvingM
  • 3P. KadeřábekD
  • 20S. MannsverkM
  • 4J. MartinecD
  • 22L. Mbe SohD
  • 27E. SinghatehM
  • 15V. VitályosD
  • 26P. VydraM
  • 47K. HegyiG
Coach: Brian Priske

Form going into Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha

Olympiakos Piraeus

UEFA Europa League

  • W1-0away to Marseille15 October 2026
  • W2-1Jagiellonia16 September 2026

Sparta Praha

UEFA Europa League

  • D1-1Lillestrom15 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Ararat-Armenia16 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Olympiakos Piraeus431041+310
22Sparta Praha41126604

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Sparta Praha 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Olympiakos Piraeus at 42%. The goal: Armando González 78' for Olympiakos Piraeus. On expected goals it finished 2.24–0.73.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.