Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani Super Liga prediction & result
Final score: Novi Pazar 2-0 Mladost Lucani.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Novi Pazar, 29% draw, 25% Mladost Lucani — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Novi Pazar at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12M. PrekovićG
- 14N. StankovicD
- 5S. MelentijevićD
- 23J. MarinkovićD
- 3V. MirosavićD
- 24I. DavidovićM
- 6P. GadioM
- 10D. SadiM
- 22A. LjajićM
- 20K. DixonM
- 99F. MulićF
- 32Bojan AdžićD
- 4Allan De LeónD
- 70D. JankovićM
- 26D. Johnson AgwomF
- 7JonnyF
- 18H. KadrićF
- 17M. MalekinušićF
- 21M. PetrovićM
- 11Nikola SkrobonjaM
- 1S. StamenkovićG
- 17A. VarjačićD
- 7N. AndrićD
- 30N. ĆirkovićD
- 33V. JovanovićD
- 3N. PetrovićD
- 24V. MarkovićM
- 32B. JovičićM
- 88Vasil TasovskiM
- 25J. ĆirićM
- 9Petar BojićF
- 10O. KrsmanovicM
- 37F. MladenovićD
- 99Ž. SamčovićG
- 22JoãoD
- 5V. KijevčaninM
- 29D. JovančićM
- 12M. JoksimovićD
- 39J. UzuegbunamF
- 44M. CvetkovićD
Form going into Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani
Novi Pazar
Super Liga
- L0-2away to Radnicki 19231 November 2026
- W2-0away to Radnicki NIS23 October 2026
- L1-2IMT Novi Beograd18 October 2026
- L0-1away to FK Partizan11 October 2026
Mladost Lucani
Super Liga
- L0-1Radnik Surdulica2 November 2026
- D1-1Vojvodina24 October 2026
- L1-5away to FK Crvena Zvezda18 October 2026
- D0-0OFK Beograd12 October 2026
What these results say
- Novi Pazar failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Novi Pazar conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Novi Pazar had two goals or fewer.
- Mladost Lucani did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Mladost Lucani conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Mladost Lucani had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serbia Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Mladost Lucani | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani
- 26 July 2026Mladost Lucani 0–0 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 28 June 2026Mladost Lucani 3–1 Novi PazarFriendlies Clubs
- 9 March 2026Mladost Lucani 0–2 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 4 October 2025Novi Pazar 1–0 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 8 July 2025Novi Pazar 1–1 Mladost LucaniFriendlies Clubs
- 28 April 2025Mladost Lucani 1–1 Novi PazarSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Novi Pazar and Mladost Lucani
Novi Pazar
GoalsAssists
- K. Dixon52
Mladost Lucani
GoalsAssists
- Vasil Tasovski40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Novi Pazar beat Mladost Lucani 2–0. The model had made a win for Novi Pazar its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ivan Davidovic 37' for Novi Pazar, Fejsal Mulic (penalty) 69' for Novi Pazar. Sent off: Adem Ljajić (Novi Pazar) 31'. On expected goals it finished 2.47–1.11.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Novi Pazar a 15.2% chance to finish in the top six: 19.5% after a win, 11.4% after a draw, 8.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.5%, 4.3 points higher than before the match.
For Mladost Lucani the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 10.4% going in: 17.7% after a win, 10.4% after a draw, 6.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.1%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Novi Pazar v Mladost Lucani has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Novi Pazar's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Novi Pazar win46%▼ −2
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Mladost Lucani win25%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.