Leones del Norte vs Libertad Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: Leones del Norte 4-1 Libertad.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Leones del Norte, 29% draw, 39% Libertad — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ecuador LigaPro predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Libertad at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leones del Norte vs Libertad
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 45M. RamírezG
- 29P. MaderoD
- 23N. MonserratD
- 2J. MoránD
- 34S. PortocarreroD
- 5T. CoppoM
- 6Emiliano GriffaM
- 11M. CaramutoM
- 99C. SolanoM
- 7M. LuqueM
- 40Juan Luis Anangonó LeónF
- 8C. VelezM
- 16M. de la CruzD
- 25B. KreimanD
- 14A. RosalesD
- 32A. AguasD
- 17T. AmiliviaF
- 18J. ArellanoD
- 22J. ArroyoG
- 3F. VargasD
- 12D. CabezasG
- 17E. PattaD
- 6B. CaicedoD
- 2R. MorinigoD
- 19O. QuiñónezD
- 20J. RodríguezD
- 70Vilinton Germán Branda MerlínM
- 80X. PinedaM
- 30J. BravoM
- 10G. CortézM
- 33A. ChéreF
- 63C. ValenciaM
- 7Carlos Alfredo Orejuela QuiñónezM
- 1P. MinaG
- 25M. LucasD
- 5C. GruezoM
- 49D. CoronelF
- 8Stick Carlos Castro PalmaM
- 9E. CaicedoF
- 11H. BatallaF
Form going into Leones del Norte vs Libertad
Leones del Norte
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Emelec18 October 2026
- L0-3away to Libertad9 October 2026
Libertad
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Guayaquil City FC17 October 2026
- W3-0Leones del Norte9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Leones del Norte vs Libertad
- 9 October 2026Libertad 3–0 Leones del NorteLiga Pro
- 4 July 2026Libertad 1–3 Leones del NorteLiga Pro
- 28 February 2026Leones del Norte 1–1 LibertadLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Leones del Norte and Libertad
Leones del Norte
GoalsAssists
- Juan Luis Anangonó León111
Libertad
GoalsAssists
- Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín132
- G. Cortéz65
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Leones del Norte beat Libertad 4–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Libertad at 39% and given a win for Leones del Norte 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Martín Caramuto 31' for Leones del Norte, Vilinton German Branda Merlin 38' for Libertad, Martín Caramuto 58' for Leones del Norte, Patricio Madero 61' for Leones del Norte, Juan Anangonó 90+6' for Leones del Norte. On expected goals it finished 2.34–2.04.
How the call on Leones del Norte v Libertad has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 32% / 29% / 39%: the biggest move is Leones del Norte's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Leones del Norte win32%▼ −4
- Draw29%=
- Libertad win39%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.