Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Fortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ Alkmaar.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Fortuna Sittard, 24% draw, 52% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 4.17, 4.17 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AZ Alkmaar at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Mattijs BranderhorstG
- 2Siebe WylinD
- 6Syb Van OtteleD
- 28Justin HubnerD
- 15Nick de GrootD
- 22Shiloh 't ZandM
- 23Philip BrittijnM
- 20Édouard MichutM
- 10Ole RomenyF
- 25Lequincio ZeefuikF
- 9Anthony DescotteF
- 12Ivo PintoD
- 8Jasper DahlhausD
- 52Mohamed IhattarenM
- 5Yassin OukiliM
- 3Rodrigo GuthD
- 33Kaylen ReitmaierG
- 1Luuk KoopmansG
- 38Moussa GbemouM
- 44David StockbrinkF
- 28Jari De BusserG
- 22Elijah DijkstraD
- 3Wouter GoesD
- 4Lewis SchoutenD
- 5Mateo ChávezD
- 21Dave KwakmanM
- 6Peer KoopmeinersM
- 7Weslley PatatiM
- 10Kees SmitM
- 11Ro-Zangelo DaalM
- 9Mexx MeerdinkF
- 14Calvin StengsM
- 19Jizz HornkampF
- 8Jordy ClasieM
- 2Seiya MaikumaD
- 24Ayoub OufkirF
- 1Rome Jayden Owusu-OduroG
- 12Hobie VerhulstG
- 31Rion IchiharaD
- 23Billy van DuijlD
Form going into Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar
Fortuna Sittard
- W3-1Cambuur15 August 2026
AZ Alkmaar
- W4-1away to Utrecht15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar
- 22 August 2026Fortuna Sittard 0–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 4 April 2026AZ Alkmaar 2–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 21 December 2025Fortuna Sittard 4–3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 23 February 2025AZ Alkmaar 1–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 6 October 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 17 February 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
Leading scorers: Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar
Fortuna Sittard
- M. Ihattaren3 goals2 assists
- L. Zeefuik3 goals1 assists
AZ Alkmaar
- R. Daal4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.