Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Omonia Nicosia 1-4 Benfica.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Omonia Nicosia, 26% draw, 39% Benfica — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Benfica at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40FabianoG
- 77L. NégoD
- 93J. DuverneD
- 37Ľ. ŠatkaD
- 29J. BalkovecD
- 11EwandroM
- 74P. AndreouM
- 14M. MarićM
- 7J. MontnorM
- 9A. KakoullisF
- 17F. TănaseF
- 22M. TankovicF
- 27S. SimičD
- 85A. NeophytouF
- 78Pantelis MichailG
- 21M. MayambelaF
- 1T. KaminskiG
- 99L. DionyF
- 82A. ChristouD
- 92C. PanagiotisM
- 1A. TrubinG
- 6A. BahD
- 3A. CircatiD
- 44Tomás AraújoD
- 34S. El KarouaniD
- 8F. AursnesM
- 16ManuM
- 27RafaM
- 30C. EcheverriM
- 21A. SchjelderupM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 88Tiago FreitasM
- 26S. DahlD
- 72A. CabralF
- 62J. NetoD
- 24Samuel SoaresG
- 2C. LengletD
- 36João PalhinhaM
- 11D. LukebakioF
- 25G. PrestianniF
Form going into Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica
Omonia Nicosia
UEFA Europa League
- W3-0away to Celje15 October 2026
- W1-0Celta Vigo16 September 2026
Benfica
UEFA Europa League
- W4-1Celtic15 October 2026
- W2-0away to AC Milan16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Omonia Nicosia and Benfica
Omonia Nicosia
GoalsAssists
- L. Diony50
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- G. Prestianni22
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Benfica won 4–1 at Omonia Nicosia. The model had made a win for Benfica its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Loïc Nego (own goal) 14' for Benfica, Andronikos Kakoullis 42' for Omonia Nicosia, Vangelis Pavlidis 49' for Benfica, Fredrik Aursnes 76' for Benfica, Gianluca Prestianni 85' for Benfica. On expected goals it finished 0.91–3.08.
How the call on Omonia Nicosia v Benfica has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 37% / 26% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 35% / 26% / 39%: the biggest move is Omonia Nicosia's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Omonia Nicosia win35%▼ −2
- Draw26%=
- Benfica win39%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.