20 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Parc des Princes, Paris
Referee: Michael Oliver
Full time4 – 2

Final score: Paris Saint Germain 4-2 Barcelona.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Paris Saint Germain, 24% draw, 35% Barcelona — fair odds of 2.44, 4.17 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Paris Saint Germain at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Paris Saint Germain99%Draw1%Barcelona0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
João Cancelo
🔁Ousmane Dembéléout: Ferrán Torres
20'
27'
🔁Daniel Olmo Carvajalout: Fermín López
⚽Désiré Doueassist: João Neves
38'
55'
⚽Xavi Espartassist: Fermín López
🔁Marcos Aoás Corrêaout: Ilya Zabarnyi
59'
🔁Khvicha Kvaratskheliaout: Maghnes Akliouche
59'
60'
🔁Raphael Dias Belloliout: Karim Adeyemi
60'
🔁Pedriout: Pablo Martín Páez Gavira
60'
🔁Marc Bernalout: Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante
⚽Lucas Hernándezassist: Désiré Doue
72'
74'
🔁Xavi Espartout: Alejandro Balde
🔁Lucas Hernándezout: Warren Zaire-Emery
78'
🔁Désiré Doueout: Senny Mayulu
78'
79'
⚽Lamine Yamal
⚽Vitinha
81'
⚽Fabián Ruizassist: Achraf Hakimi
86'

Match stats — Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona

47%Possession53%
22Shots18
14On target5
2Corners3
3.74xG2.25

Goals against chances

Paris Saint Germain4 from 3.74 xGabout what the chances were worth
Barcelona2 from 2.25 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
  • 39M. SafonovG
  • 2A. HakimiD
  • 5MarquinhosD
  • 51W. PachoD
  • 21L. HernándezD
  • 87João NevesM
  • 17VitinhaM
  • 8Fabián RuizM
  • 14D. DouéF
  • 10O. DembéléF
  • 7K. KvaratskheliaF
Substitutes
  • 11M. AklioucheM
  • 30L. ChevalierG
  • 12L. DigneD
  • 4BeraldoD
  • 27Pedro FernándezM
  • 22M. GodtsF
  • 24Senny MayuluM
  • 80Adam MouakG
  • 47Quentin Ndjantou MbitchaF
Coach: Luis Enrique
Barcelona 4-2-3-1
  • 1Joan GarcíaG
  • 12X. EspartD
  • 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
  • 18Gerard MartínD
  • 2João CanceloD
  • 22Marc BernalM
  • 8PedriM
  • 10Lamine YamalM
  • 20Dani OlmoM
  • 17A. GordonM
  • 11RaphinhaF
Substitutes
  • 3Alejandro BaldeD
  • 41A. CamposD
  • 21F. de JongM
  • 4B. FarinasM
  • 7FermínM
  • 9Gabriel JesusF
  • 6GaviM
  • 25D. LivakovićG
  • 16RodriM
Coach: H. Flick

Form going into Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona

Paris Saint Germain

UEFA Champions League

  • W4-2away to Manchester City14 October 2026
  • W6-1Slovan Bratislava9 September 2026

Barcelona

UEFA Champions League

  • W4-1away to Galatasaray13 October 2026
  • W5-1Feyenoord9 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain4400205+1512
5Barcelona4301146+89

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona

  • 1 October 2025Barcelona 1–2 Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
  • 16 April 2024Barcelona 1–4 Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
  • 10 April 2024Paris Saint Germain 2–3 BarcelonaUEFA Champions League
  • 10 March 2021Paris Saint Germain 1–1 BarcelonaUEFA Champions League
  • 16 February 2021Barcelona 1–4 Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
  • 8 March 2017Barcelona 6–1 Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League

The full Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona record →

Leading scorers: Paris Saint Germain and Barcelona

Paris Saint Germain

GoalsAssists

  • Fabián Ruiz41
  • O. Dembélé33
  • D. Doué32

Barcelona

GoalsAssists

  • Raphinha40
  • Lamine Yamal34

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Paris Saint Germain beat Barcelona 4–2. The model had made a win for Paris Saint Germain its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Désiré Doue 38' for Paris Saint Germain, Xavi Espart 55' for Barcelona, Lucas Hernández 72' for Paris Saint Germain, Lamine Yamal 79' for Barcelona, Vitinha 81' for Paris Saint Germain, Fabián Ruiz 86' for Paris Saint Germain. On expected goals it finished 3.74–2.25.

How the call on Paris Saint Germain v Barcelona has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 38% / 26% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 24% / 35%: the biggest move is Paris Saint Germain's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Paris Saint Germain win41%▲ +3
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Barcelona win35%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.